YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$41.08
-0.45 (-1.10%)
▼
5d:
-7.18%
30d:
-8.6%
90d:
-20.99%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.24
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.72
12.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $41.08, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.65 to $44.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.7) compared to its historical average (15.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 13.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.22 (+47.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.32. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.22 (+47.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$42.65 -
$44.95
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 47.4% below Wall St target ($61.22)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -7.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$42.65 -
$44.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.32
Resistance Level
$44.23
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.71
Wall Street Target
$61.22
(+47.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
13.0%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.7 vs 15.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.66
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$36.00
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$33.51
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$41.39
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$100.02
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.7, Growth: 12.0%)
$58.37
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$49.62
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.61
Bull Case
$57.98
(+40%)
Analyst growth 25.2%, PE expands to 17.8
Base Case
$52.71
(+27%)
Market implied 25.2%, PE stable at 16.1
Bear Case
$28.63
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.7 to 15.7
Stabilization Target:
$51.30
(+23.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 11:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
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