Yum China (YUMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$49.21
+0.17 (+0.35%)
▲
5d:
-1.13%
30d:
+13.91%
90d:
+3.4%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (29%)
Quality Score
31/100
Position
EXTENDED
30-Day Fair Range
$42.53 – $48.35
Position: EXTENDED
Forward P/E & Valuation
14.6x
FAIR
vs 14.7x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$62.02
+26.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$45.00 / $51.20
Trend: Uptrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YUMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.65
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.59
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $49.21, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $42.53 to $48.35. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 19.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.99, while resistance sits at $51.20.
Market Sentiment: YUMC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.02 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $44.99, while resistance sits at $51.20.
Market Sentiment: YUMC scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.02 (+26.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$42.53 -
$48.35
Company Quality Score
31/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$42.53 -
$48.35
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support Level
$45.00
Resistance Level
$51.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Nov 12, 2026
Quantitative Signal Breakdown
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.0% below Wall St target ($62.02)
- WARNING: Composite score 31/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.58
Wall Street Target
$62.02
(+26.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
8.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
19.7%
Profit Margin
7.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$49.11
(0%)
2-Year Target
$49.01
(0%)
3-Year Target
$48.92
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$49.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.3%)
$100.13
(+104%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.6, Growth: 14.3%)
$73.51
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 14.3%)
$62.48
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.88
Bull Case
$63.22
(+29%)
Analyst growth 17.2%, PE expands to 18.7
Base Case
$57.47
(+17%)
Market implied 17.2%, PE stable at 17.0
Bear Case
$33.35
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.6 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$49.61
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (YUMC)
Bullish
2 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 6, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
A bullish StockTwits user suggests a potential expansion deal between Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG) and Yum China (YUMC) to enter the Chinese market.
Key Retail Themes:
Chinese expansion
Partnership
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 12, 2026 8:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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