YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$48.18
1.71 (3.68%)
▲
5d:
+11.01%
30d:
+17.63%
90d:
-0.56%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Get Alerted When YUMC Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: YUMC is 7.4% above its trading range ($44.88). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: YUMC is 7.4% above its trading range ($44.88). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$74.37
Based on 8.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $48.18, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.16 to $44.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.7) is in line with its historical norms (15.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.75 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.48. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: YUMC has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.75 (+28.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$41.16 -
$44.88
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.4% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- BULLISH: Trading 28.2% below Wall St target ($61.75)
- CAUTION: Extended 7.4% above its trading range - wait for pullback
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.16 -
$44.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.60
Resistance Level
$48.49
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.71
Wall Street Target
$61.75
(+28.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.7 vs 15.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.55
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$46.94
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$46.33
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$48.20
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$96.69
(+101%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.7, Growth: 12.5%)
$68.59
(+42%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.5, Growth: 12.5%)
$58.30
(+21%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.60 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.64
Bull Case
$63.44
(+32%)
Analyst growth 24.1%, PE expands to 19.4
Base Case
$57.67
(+20%)
Market implied 24.1%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$31.60
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.7 to 15.3
Stabilization Target:
$50.13
(+4.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 6:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:41 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
Joey Wat
SELL
104000 shares
2026-02-13
Joey Wat
SELL
4613 shares
2026-02-11
Top Rated Restaurants Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Restaurants by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WING
Wingstop Inc |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$209 | 45 HOLD |
|
CMG
Chipotle Mexican Grill I… |
STRONG BUY
37 analysts |
$44 | 50 HOLD |
|
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$80 | 54 HOLD |
|
QSR
Restaurant Brands Intern… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$85 | 48 HOLD |
|
DPZ
Domino's Pizza Inc Commo… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$387 | 48 HOLD |
