Yum China (YUMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$42.32
0.03 (0.07%)
▲
5d:
-3.14%
30d:
-11.65%
90d:
-2.89%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.97
Based on 9.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$49.03
13.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $42.32, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.21 to $48.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.5) compared to its historical average (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.91 (+46.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $42.23. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.91 (+46.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.21 -
$48.54
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 46.3% below Wall St target ($61.91)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (47/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.21 -
$48.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.23
Resistance Level
$45.76
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.53
Wall Street Target
$61.92
(+46.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 15.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$39.78
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$37.39
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$35.15
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$42.36
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 14.4%)
$102.04
(+141%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 14.4%)
$63.39
(+50%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.7, Growth: 14.4%)
$53.88
(+27%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.49 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.73
Bull Case
$57.55
(+36%)
Analyst growth 23.7%, PE expands to 17.0
Base Case
$52.32
(+24%)
Market implied 23.7%, PE stable at 15.5
Bear Case
$28.76
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$51.00
(+20.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+20.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 4:50 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:50 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:50 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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