YUMC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$49.52
0.64 (1.31%)
▲
5d:
+4.06%
30d:
+14.87%
90d:
+10.19%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YUMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YUMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.56
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.78
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $49.52, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.01 to $48.03. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 14.6) is in line with its historical norms (15.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.05 (+26.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $49.73. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 42/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.05 (+26.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$44.01 -
$48.03
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (42/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.9% below Wall St target ($62.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.01 -
$48.03
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$46.71
Resistance Level
$49.73
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.55
Wall Street Target
$62.05
(+26.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.6 vs 15.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$48.15
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$47.42
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$46.71
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$48.81
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 14.1%)
$100.19
(+105%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.5, Growth: 14.1%)
$72.61
(+49%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.4, Growth: 14.1%)
$61.72
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.77
Bull Case
$63.49
(+28%)
Analyst growth 21.3%, PE expands to 18.9
Base Case
$57.72
(+17%)
Market implied 21.3%, PE stable at 17.2
Bear Case
$32.35
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.5 to 15.2
Stabilization Target:
$51.08
(+4.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 9:09 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:09 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Xueling Lu
SELL
23504 shares
2026-02-24
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