Yum China (YUMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$44.76
0.30 (0.67%)
▲
5d:
+0.2%
30d:
+9.57%
90d:
+3.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YUMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: YUMC shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$77.72
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.26
7.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $44.76, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.49 to $43.61. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.3) is in line with its historical norms (14.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YUMC scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.16 (+38.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $45.37. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: YUMC scores 5/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $62.16 (+38.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$40.49 -
$43.61
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
28.6%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (5/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 38.9% below Wall St target ($62.16)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.49 -
$43.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$42.18
Resistance Level
$45.37
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.26
Wall Street Target
$62.17
(+38.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 14.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$43.19
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$41.68
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$40.22
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→15)
$44.61
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 14.9%)
$101.66
(+127%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 14.9%)
$67.85
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 14.9%)
$57.67
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 16.29 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.73
Bull Case
$60.49
(+35%)
Analyst growth 23.7%, PE expands to 17.9
Base Case
$54.99
(+23%)
Market implied 23.7%, PE stable at 16.3
Bear Case
$30.23
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 14.7
Stabilization Target:
$49.64
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 4:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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