Yum China (YUMC) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
YUMC - Yum China Holdings, Inc. Common Stock
$39.98
-0.98 (-2.39%)
▼
5d:
-1.21%
30d:
-10.66%
90d:
-5.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
30d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: YUMC shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$78.64
Based on 9.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$48.83
18.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: YUMC is currently trading at $39.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $40.57 to $45.24. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 11.8) compared to its historical average (14.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 21.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.91 (+54.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, YUMC is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $39.72. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $61.91 (+54.9%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$40.57 -
$45.24
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.9% below Wall St target ($61.91)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (40/100) — watch for confirmation
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$40.57 -
$45.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.72
Resistance Level
$41.78
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.81
Wall Street Target
$61.92
(+54.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
21.4%
Profit Margin
7.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 14.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.02
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$34.28
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$31.75
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→15)
$40.06
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 14.7%)
$104.14
(+161%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 14.7%)
$60.28
(+51%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.0, Growth: 14.7%)
$51.24
(+28%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.06 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.72
Bull Case
$56.09
(+40%)
Analyst growth 24.5%, PE expands to 16.6
Base Case
$50.99
(+28%)
Market implied 24.5%, PE stable at 15.1
Bear Case
$27.85
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 14.9
Stabilization Target:
$50.45
(+26.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+26.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 8:45 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:45 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is YUMC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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