Zumiez (ZUMZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$13.29
-0.19 (-1.41%)
▼
5d:
-0.15%
30d:
-26.82%
90d:
-25.04%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ZUMZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ZUMZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.36
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.16
52.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $13.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.33 to $17.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.4) compared to its historical average (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+58.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ scores 85/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+58.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$13.33 -
$17.44
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (85/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 58.0% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 39% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.33 -
$17.44
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.07
Resistance Level
$14.59
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.38
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+58.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-17.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 21.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-17.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.96
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$10.76
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$9.69
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→22)
$16.98
(+28%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 40.3%)
$60.47
(+355%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 40.3%)
$36.70
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 40.3%)
$31.20
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.66
Bull Case
$24.11
(+81%)
Analyst growth 62.6%, PE expands to 22.5
Base Case
$21.92
(+65%)
Market implied 62.6%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case
$9.17
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.4 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$23.29
(+75.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+75.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 04, 2026 3:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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