ZUMZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$23.11
-0.14 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-8.11%
30d:
+1.05%
90d:
-10.77%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jun 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ZUMZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ZUMZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$52.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$32.31
28.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 24.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $23.11, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.05 to $24.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.5) compared to its historical average (24.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.41, while resistance sits at $25.51.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $22.41, while resistance sits at $25.51.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$23.05 -
$24.72
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($24.00)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.1% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.05 -
$24.72
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.41
Resistance Level
$25.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.53
Wall Street Target
$24.00
(+3.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Profit Margin
1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.5 vs 24.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$22.00
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$20.94
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$19.94
(-14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→25)
$23.06
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 40.3%)
$64.94
(+181%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.5, Growth: 40.3%)
$63.82
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.3, Growth: 40.3%)
$54.25
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (32x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.24 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.78
Bull Case
$38.07
(+50%)
Analyst growth 37.6%, PE expands to 35.5
Base Case
$34.61
(+37%)
Market implied 37.6%, PE stable at 32.2
Bear Case
$17.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.5 to 24.9
Stabilization Target:
$26.73
(+15.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+15.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 7:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
8
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris K Visser
SELL
9974 shares
2026-04-01
Adam Christopher Ellis
SELL
7319 shares
2025-12-22
Travis Smith
SELL
9175 shares
2025-12-19
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