ZUMZ Zumiez Inc. RETAIL-APPAREL & ACCESSORY STORES

Zumiez (ZUMZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

$14.00
-0.09 (-0.64%) â–ŧ
5d: -0.28% 30d: -3.05% 90d: -22.31%
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
WAIT
LOW Confidence (57%)
Quality Score
36/100
Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
30-Day Fair Range
$13.87 – $14.78
Position: SLIGHTLY LOW
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.0x CHEAP
vs 20.6x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$21.00
+50.0% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$13.82 / $16.15
Trend: Strong Downtrend
💡Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
â„šī¸ NEUTRAL: ZUMZ is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -14.1% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.73
47.6% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.6x Exit PE.

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $14.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.87 to $14.78. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.0) compared to its historical average (20.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $13.82. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: ZUMZ scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+50.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range $13.87 - $14.78
Company Quality Score 36/100 (SELL)
Volume Confirmation HIGH
Confidence Score 57.1%

Trading Range & Key Levels

30-Day Trading Range $13.87 - $14.78
Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW
Support Level $13.82
Resistance Level $16.15
Current Trend Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of Nov 13, 2026

Quantitative Signal Breakdown

  • BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
  • BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
  • BULLISH: High volume confirmation
  • BULLISH: Trading 50.0% below Wall St target ($21.00)
  • WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 13.04
Wall Street Target $21.00 (+50.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY) -2.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY) 49.1%
Profit Margin 1.4%
Valuation Discount vs History -14.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical 13.0 vs 20.6 CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY): -14.1% (market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target $12.60 (-10%)
2-Year Target $11.34 (-19%)
3-Year Target $10.21 (-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 13→21) $16.12 (+15%)
3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull: (PE: 19.9, Growth: 40.3%) $58.87 (+321%)
Base: (SPY PE: 13.0, Growth: 40.3%) $38.66 (+176%)
Bear: (PE: 11.1, Growth: 40.3%) $32.86 (+135%)
📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (20x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (13x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.42 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.69
Bull Case $24.11 (+72%)
Analyst growth 55.6%, PE expands to 22.5
Base Case $21.92 (+57%)
Market implied 55.6%, PE stable at 20.4
Bear Case $9.58 (-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡 Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.0 to 20.6
Stabilization Target: $22.11 (+57.9%)
PE Expansion Potential: +57.9%
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Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (ZUMZ)

Bullish 1 Retail Mentions
StockTwits Volume
1 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Sep 28, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary: Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding $ZUMZ, focusing on the company's strong financial position with no long-term debt, significant cash reserves, high yield, and long-term dividend growth.
Key Retail Themes: Financial Strength Dividend Growth
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams. View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 13, 2026 6:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:43 PM
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Ticker Score Recommendation Change %
Technical Signals Check
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL

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