Zumiez (ZUMZ) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$14.55
-2.16 (-12.93%)
▼
5d:
-17.8%
30d:
-22.69%
90d:
-21.39%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 10, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ZUMZ is down 17.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ZUMZ is down 17.8% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$46.82
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.07
49.9% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $14.55, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.23 to $19.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.6) compared to its historical average (22.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 15.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.84, while resistance sits at $18.52. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $13.84, while resistance sits at $18.52. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 12.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ scores 26/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+44.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$17.23 -
$19.47
Company Quality Score
32/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (26/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-12.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.3% below Wall St target ($21.00)
- WARNING: Composite score 32/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.23 -
$19.47
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.84
Resistance Level
$18.52
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.56
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+44.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-15.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.6 vs 22.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-15.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.10
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.79
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.61
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→22)
$17.53
(+21%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 40.3%)
$59.79
(+311%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.6, Growth: 40.3%)
$40.18
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.5, Growth: 40.3%)
$34.16
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (14x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.54 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.71
Bull Case
$27.79
(+91%)
Analyst growth 51.2%, PE expands to 25.9
Base Case
$25.26
(+74%)
Market implied 51.2%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$11.36
(-22%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.6 to 22.4
Stabilization Target:
$24.04
(+65.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+65.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:56 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris K Visser
SELL
9974 shares
2026-04-01
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