ZUMZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$18.17
0.06 (0.33%)
▲
5d:
+2.48%
30d:
-1.25%
90d:
-24.64%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZUMZ appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.5% annual earnings decline despite 49% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ZUMZ appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -10.5% annual earnings decline despite 49% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$49.33
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$30.63
40.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $18.17, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.58 to $18.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 16.9) compared to its historical average (23.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.09, while resistance sits at $25.51.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.09, while resistance sits at $25.51.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $21.00 (+15.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$17.58 -
$18.54
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($21.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.58 -
$18.54
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.09
Resistance Level
$25.51
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.93
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+15.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.9 vs 23.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.35
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$14.72
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$13.25
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→24)
$18.47
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 40.3%)
$64.56
(+255%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.9, Growth: 40.3%)
$50.18
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.4, Growth: 40.3%)
$42.65
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (24x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 24.15 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$28.51
(+57%)
Analyst growth 43.1%, PE expands to 26.6
Base Case
$25.92
(+43%)
Market implied 43.1%, PE stable at 24.2
Bear Case
$12.31
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 20.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.9 to 23.6
Stabilization Target:
$25.33
(+39.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris K Visser
SELL
9974 shares
2026-04-01
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