ZUMZ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ZUMZ - Zumiez Inc.
$20.47
0.80 (4.07%)
▲
5d:
+5.19%
30d:
+16.64%
90d:
-16.0%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ZUMZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ZUMZ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$48.28
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.98
31.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 23.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ZUMZ is currently trading at $20.47, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $17.79 to $19.47. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.1) compared to its historical average (23.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 49.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ZUMZ is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $20.62. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: ZUMZ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$17.79 -
$19.47
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.1%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($21.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$17.79 -
$19.47
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.37
Resistance Level
$20.62
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.07
Wall Street Target
$21.00
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
49.1%
Profit Margin
1.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.1 vs 23.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$19.20
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$18.01
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$16.89
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→23)
$20.46
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 40.3%)
$61.45
(+200%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.1, Growth: 40.3%)
$56.53
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.2, Growth: 40.3%)
$48.05
(+135%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 26.23 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$30.96
(+51%)
Analyst growth 43.1%, PE expands to 28.9
Base Case
$28.15
(+38%)
Market implied 43.1%, PE stable at 26.2
Bear Case
$13.38
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 22.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.1 to 23.1
Stabilization Target:
$24.79
(+21.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 9:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:14 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
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Technical Signals Check
Is ZUMZ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chris K Visser
SELL
9974 shares
2026-04-01
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