AAL Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAL - American Airlines Group Inc.
$17.02
0.88 (5.42%)
▲
5d:
+8.31%
30d:
+22.85%
90d:
+58.87%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
28d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
Get Alerted When AAL Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AAL is 10.6% above its trading range ($15.39). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: AAL is 10.6% above its trading range ($15.39). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.04
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.17
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAL is currently trading at $17.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $13.10 to $15.39. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (6.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAL is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $16.59. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAL has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$13.10 -
$15.39
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAL? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.6% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.4%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($15.61)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.7% growth with 10.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$13.10 -
$15.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.31
Resistance Level
$16.59
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.24
Wall Street Target
$15.61
(-3.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
10.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-83.1%
Profit Margin
0.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.7% premium
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 6.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$17.22
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$18.38
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$19.61
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→6)
PE COMPRESSION
$16.24
(+1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 4050.1%)
$163.82
(+915%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 4050.1%)
$54.47
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 4050.1%)
$45.13
(+180%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (52x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 51.87 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.31
Bull Case
$35.38
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 57.1
Base Case
$32.16
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 51.9
Bear Case
$10.93
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 44.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 10:10 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:10 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AAL showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Top Rated Airlines Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Airlines by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
DAL
Delta Air Lines Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$82 | 65 BUY |
|
UAL
United Airlines Holdings… |
STRONG BUY
25 analysts |
$132 | 60 HOLD |
|
ALK
Alaska Air Group Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$58 | 60 HOLD |
|
CPA
Copa Holdings SA |
STRONG BUY
15 analysts |
$168 | 56 HOLD |
|
LUV
Southwest Airlines Compa… |
SELL
24 analysts |
$46 | 58 HOLD |
Advanced AAL Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAL price and gamma walls.
