AAOI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$148.16
-1.94 (-1.29%)
▼
5d:
+0.49%
30d:
-6.47%
90d:
+73.92%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAOI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AAOI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $148.16, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $152.14 to $188.21. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 31.1) compared to its historical average (42.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $127.01, while resistance sits at $196.50.
Market Sentiment: AAOI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $127.01, while resistance sits at $196.50.
Market Sentiment: AAOI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$152.14 -
$188.21
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAOI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$152.14 -
$188.21
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$127.01
Resistance Level
$196.50
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
31.05
Wall Street Target
$151.30
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Profit Margin
-8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
31.1 vs 42.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$133.94
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$121.08
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$109.46
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→42)
$148.42
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 31.0, Growth: 437.2%)
$500.04
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 437.2%)
$350.78
(+137%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 437.2%)
$298.16
(+101%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 31.0 to 42.1
Stabilization Target:
$200.90
(+35.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 30, 2026 9:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAOI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stefan J Murry
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-10
David C Kuo
SELL
29000 shares
2026-03-19
Hung-Lun (Fred) Chang
SELL
36400 shares
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.
