AAOI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$100.15
-11.87 (-10.60%)
▼
5d:
-2.21%
30d:
-31.86%
90d:
-27.29%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
9d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAOI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 19.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAOI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 19.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.25
30.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $100.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $106.96 to $155.76. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (40.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 19.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.50, while resistance sits at $128.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.30 (+51.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.50, while resistance sits at $128.35. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 10.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.30 (+51.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$106.96 -
$155.76
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-10.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 51.1% below Wall St target ($151.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$106.96 -
$155.76
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.50
Resistance Level
$128.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.99
Wall Street Target
$151.30
(+51.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Profit Margin
-8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-19.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 40.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-19.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$90.14
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$81.12
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$73.01
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→40)
$139.85
(+40%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 437.2%)
$338.01
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.8, Growth: 437.2%)
$335.16
(+235%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.7, Growth: 437.2%)
$284.88
(+185%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.0 to 40.2
Stabilization Target:
$191.83
(+91.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+91.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 27, 2026 6:24 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:24 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAOI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stefan J Murry
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-10
David C Kuo
SELL
29000 shares
2026-03-19
Hung-Lun (Fred) Chang
SELL
36400 shares
2026-03-16
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