Is AAOI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AAOI is currently a HOLD with low confidence. 📊 HOLD: AAOI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of AAOI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAOI to be between $103.26 and $134.22. The current price is $95.76.

What is the analyst price target for AAOI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAOI is $163.40. This implies a potential upside of 70.6% from current levels.

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$95.76

-9.60 (-9.11%) ▼

5d: -9.26%

30d: -26.38%

90d: -43.35%

HOLD

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Sep 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 4, 2026 at $105.53 · last confirmed Sep 14, 2026

Strength: 8.5/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AAOI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$224.04

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$139.11

31.2% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $95.76, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $103.26 to $134.22. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 20.8) compared to its historical average (37.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 17.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $95.67. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 9.1% recently.

Market Sentiment: AAOI scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.40 (+70.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $103.26 - $134.22

Company Quality Score 57/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 85.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-9.1%)
BULLISH: Trading 70.6% below Wall St target ($163.40)
CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 28% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-9.3%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $103.26 - $134.22

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $95.67

Resistance Level $116.90

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Sep 14, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 20.81

Wall Street Target $163.40 (+70.6%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 86.4%

Profit Margin -9.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -17.7% cheaper

PE vs Historical 20.8 vs 37.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -17.7% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $86.18 (-10%)

2-Year Target $77.57 (-19%)

3-Year Target $69.81 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 21→37) $125.47 (+31%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.8, Growth: 576.8%) $323.19 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 576.8%) $313.59 (+228%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 576.8%) $266.55 (+178%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 20.8 to 37.4

Stabilization Target: $172.11 (+79.7%)

PE Expansion Potential: +79.7%

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Last updated: September 15, 2026 8:28 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:28 AM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stefan J Murry SELL 4000 shares 2026-04-10

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Advanced AAOI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.

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