AAOI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$108.10
13.78 (14.61%)
▲
5d:
+10.51%
30d:
-10.62%
90d:
-41.09%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAOI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAOI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 20.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.25
25.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $108.10, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $96.85 to $139.94. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 19.8) compared to its historical average (39.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 20.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.01, while resistance sits at $120.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 14.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAOI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.30 (+66.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $76.01, while resistance sits at $120.20. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 14.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAOI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $157.30 (+66.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$96.85 -
$139.94
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+14.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 66.8% below Wall St target ($157.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$96.85 -
$139.94
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$76.01
Resistance Level
$120.20
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
19.77
Wall Street Target
$157.30
(+66.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Profit Margin
-8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-20.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
19.8 vs 39.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-20.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$84.89
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$76.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$68.76
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→40)
$137.41
(+46%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 437.2%)
$333.87
(+254%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.8, Growth: 437.2%)
$318.33
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.8, Growth: 437.2%)
$270.58
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 19.8 to 39.5
Stabilization Target:
$188.49
(+99.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+99.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 1:36 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:36 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAOI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stefan J Murry
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-10
David C Kuo
SELL
29000 shares
2026-03-19
Hung-Lun (Fred) Chang
SELL
36400 shares
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.
