AAOI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$147.44
-23.79 (-13.89%)
▼
5d:
-23.03%
30d:
-16.61%
90d:
+53.97%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.4/10
Get Alerted When AAOI Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAOI is down 23.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AAOI is down 23.0% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $147.44, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $163.26 to $189.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 30.9) compared to its historical average (42.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 13.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 13.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$163.26 -
$189.20
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
70.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAOI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-13.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($151.30)
- WARNING: Recommendation downgraded due to -23.0% 5-day decline - wait for stabilization
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$163.26 -
$189.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.26
Resistance Level
$207.60
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
30.90
Wall Street Target
$151.30
(+2.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Profit Margin
-8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
30.9 vs 42.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$132.70
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$119.43
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$107.48
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 31→43)
$147.85
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 30.9, Growth: 437.2%)
$497.61
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 437.2%)
$350.78
(+138%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 437.2%)
$298.16
(+102%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 30.9 to 42.5
Stabilization Target:
$202.81
(+37.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+37.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 7:58 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:58 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is AAOI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
19
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stefan J Murry
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-10
David C Kuo
SELL
29000 shares
2026-03-19
Hung-Lun (Fred) Chang
SELL
36400 shares
2026-03-16
Top Rated Communication Equipment Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Communication Equipment by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
CSCO
Cisco Systems Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$127 | 64 BUY |
|
MSI
Motorola Solutions Inc |
STRONG BUY
14 analysts |
$507 | 57 HOLD |
|
ZBRA
Zebra Technologies Corpo… |
BUY
19 analysts |
$329 | 57 HOLD |
|
LITE
Lumentum Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
16 analysts |
$1111 | 51 HOLD |
|
CIEN
Ciena Corp |
BUY
16 analysts |
$565 | 56 HOLD |
Advanced AAOI Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.
