Is AAOI stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, AAOI is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAOI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of AAOI stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AAOI to be between $98.66 and $109.55. The current price is $117.10.

What is the analyst price target for AAOI?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AAOI is $163.40. This implies a potential upside of 41.4% from current levels.

Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.

SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES

$117.10

1.51 (1.31%) ▲

5d: +20.95%

30d: +16.66%

90d: +2.35%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your AAOI Gains

Analysis Updated: Oct 5, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 05, 2026 30d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Sep 30, 2026 at $98.22 · last confirmed Oct 5, 2026

Strength: 10.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AAOI shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 25.0%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$224.04

Based on 14.5% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$139.11

15.8% Margin of Safety

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $117.10, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $98.66 to $109.55. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.1) compared to its historical average (36.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $119.95. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 40/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $163.40 (+41.4%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $98.66 - $109.55

Company Quality Score 50/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 46.2%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.9% above its trading range)
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 41.4% below Wall St target ($163.40)
WARNING: Composite score 50/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $98.66 - $109.55

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $93.62

Resistance Level $119.95

Current Trend Strong Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 5, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 25.12

Wall Street Target $163.40 (+41.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 86.4%

Profit Margin -9.6%

Valuation Discount vs History -11.6% cheaper

PE vs Historical 25.1 vs 36.4 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -11.6% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $104.03 (-10%)

2-Year Target $93.63 (-19%)

3-Year Target $84.27 (-27%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 25→36) $122.12 (+6%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 25.1, Growth: 576.8%) $390.12 (+238%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.4, Growth: 576.8%) $316.85 (+174%)

Bear: (PE: 17.3, Growth: 576.8%) $269.32 (+133%)

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.1 to 36.4

Stabilization Target: $167.51 (+44.9%)

PE Expansion Potential: +44.9%

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Last updated: October 05, 2026 1:30 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:30 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Stefan J Murry SELL 4000 shares 2026-04-10

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Advanced AAOI Option Strategies

Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.

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