AAOI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AAOI - Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
$119.26
16.24 (15.76%)
▲
5d:
-4.93%
30d:
-26.31%
90d:
-27.04%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 4.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAOI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AAOI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 14.9% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$232.32
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$144.25
17.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $119.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $110.78 to $160.23. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 25.0) compared to its historical average (40.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.9% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.50, while resistance sits at $128.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAOI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.30 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $91.50, while resistance sits at $128.35. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 15.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAOI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $151.30 (+26.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$110.78 -
$160.23
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+15.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 26.9% below Wall St target ($151.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$110.78 -
$160.23
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$91.50
Resistance Level
$128.35
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.99
Wall Street Target
$151.30
(+26.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
51.4%
Profit Margin
-8.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
25.0 vs 40.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$107.33
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$96.60
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$86.94
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 25→41)
$140.89
(+18%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 25.0, Growth: 437.2%)
$402.50
(+238%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.9, Growth: 437.2%)
$337.41
(+183%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.8, Growth: 437.2%)
$286.80
(+141%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 25.0 to 40.5
Stabilization Target:
$193.27
(+62.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+62.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 21, 2026 5:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAOI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Stefan J Murry
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-10
David C Kuo
SELL
29000 shares
2026-03-19
Hung-Lun (Fred) Chang
SELL
36400 shares
2026-03-16
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AAOI price and gamma walls.
