AAOI
Applied Optoelectronics, Inc.
SEMICONDUCTORS & RELATED DEVICES
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Applied Optoelectronics (AAOI) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$49.89
-2.96 (-5.60%)
▼
5d:
-0.48%
30d:
-40.42%
90d:
-67.79%
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Earnings: Nov 05, 2026
0d
Protect AAOI Gains
Updated Nov 13, 12:00 AM ET
QUANTITATIVE VERDICT
HOLD
LOW Confidence (86%)
Quality Score
59/100
Position
OVERSOLD
30-Day Fair Range
$54.53 – $100.32
Position: OVERSOLD
Forward P/E & Valuation
13.3x
CHEAP
vs 34.0x historical avg
Wall Street Target
$109.00
+118.5% upside
Options IV & Volume
HIGH Vol
HIGH volume confirmation
Support / Resistance
$45.15 / $71.58
Trend: Strong Downtrend
Executive Thesis & Bottom Line
Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →
📊 HOLD: AAOI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Nov 12, 2026 at $52.94 · last confirmed Nov 13, 2026
Strength: 8.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$182.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$113.31
56.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AAOI is currently trading at $49.89, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $54.53 to $100.32. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.3) compared to its historical average (34.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 26.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.15, while resistance sits at $71.58. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAOI scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.00 (+118.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AAOI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.15, while resistance sits at $71.58. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AAOI scores 68/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $109.00 (+118.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$54.53 -
$100.32
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
Trading Range & Key Levels
30-Day Trading Range
$54.53 -
$100.32
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support Level
$45.15
Resistance Level
$71.58
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Nov 13, 2026
Protect Your Profits
Holding AAOI? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanQuantitative Signal Breakdown
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (68/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 118.5% below Wall St target ($109.00)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 24% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.31
Wall Street Target
$109.00
(+118.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
127.5%
Profit Margin
-4.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-26.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.3 vs 34.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-26.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.90
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$40.41
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$36.37
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→34)
$92.91
(+86%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 439.3%)
$251.24
(+404%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.3, Growth: 439.3%)
$168.38
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.3, Growth: 439.3%)
$143.12
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.3 to 34.0
Stabilization Target:
$127.44
(+155.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+155.4%
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bloggers & journalists: you are free to use our charts with attribution.Reddit & Retail Trader Sentiment (AAOI)
Bullish
3 Retail Mentions
Reddit / WSB Comments
1
Bearish
StockTwits Volume
2 msgs
24h retail stream
Last Tracked
Nov 15, 2026
Daily AI digest
AI Retail Discussion Summary:
Bullish sentiment on StockTwits regarding $AAOI, with traders anticipating a materialization of the company's potential in the photonics industry due to copper overheating.
Key Retail Themes:
Anticipated growth in the photonics industry due to copper overheating
Imminent materialization of $AAOI's potential in the industry
Aggregated from r/wallstreetbets, r/stocks & StockTwits streams.
View All Trending Reddit & WSB Stocks →
Last updated: November 15, 2026 4:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AAOI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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