ABR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ABR - Arbor Realty Trust, Inc.
$5.06
-0.14 (-2.69%)
▼
5d:
-2.88%
30d:
-12.46%
90d:
-32.62%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ABR trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.8% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$11.06
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.87
26.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ABR is currently trading at $5.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $5.18 to $5.74. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.6) compared to its historical average (8.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.25 (+43.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ABR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.99. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $7.25 (+43.3%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$5.18 -
$5.74
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 43.3% below Wall St target ($7.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$5.18 -
$5.74
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.99
Resistance Level
$5.53
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.57
Wall Street Target
$7.25
(+43.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-10.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-98.0%
Profit Margin
22.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.6 vs 8.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.87
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$4.68
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$4.50
(-11%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$5.05
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 114.1%)
$49.10
(+870%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.6, Growth: 114.1%)
$17.08
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.4, Growth: 114.1%)
$14.52
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.40
Bull Case
$9.55
(+89%)
Analyst growth 67.0%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$8.68
(+72%)
Market implied 67.0%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$3.54
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.6 to 8.5
Stabilization Target:
$5.68
(+12.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 8:39 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:39 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ABR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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