ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$208.58
2.54 (1.23%)
▲
5d:
+4.42%
30d:
-7.31%
90d:
-13.33%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.0/10
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2 traders called ADSK this week
67% bullish • 1 bearish
67% bullish • 1 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.8% annual earnings decline despite 231% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ADSK appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.8% annual earnings decline despite 231% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$393.46
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$244.31
14.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 22.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $208.58, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $191.87 to $224.86. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (22.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $189.00, while resistance sits at $215.99.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $318.53 (+52.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $189.00, while resistance sits at $215.99.
Market Sentiment: ADSK has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $318.53 (+52.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$191.87 -
$224.86
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 52.7% below Wall St target ($318.53)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$191.87 -
$224.86
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$189.00
Resistance Level
$215.99
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.90
Wall Street Target
$318.53
(+52.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 22.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$194.40
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$181.18
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$168.86
(-19%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→22)
$208.50
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 13.8%)
$374.21
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 13.8%)
$307.51
(+47%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 13.8%)
$261.39
(+25%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (31x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 30.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.66
Bull Case
$396.59
(+90%)
Analyst growth 75.0%, PE expands to 34.0
Base Case
$360.53
(+73%)
Market implied 75.0%, PE stable at 30.9
Bear Case
$140.11
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 26.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 22.1
Stabilization Target:
$257.55
(+23.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+23.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 10, 2026 3:43 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:43 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
4
Buys
4
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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