ADSK Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ADSK - Autodesk Inc
$246.79
5.15 (2.13%)
â˛
5d:
-1.91%
30d:
+13.31%
90d:
+1.36%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
7d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 10, 2026 at $256.07 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADSK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: ADSK is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -0.8% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$386.34
Based on 8.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$239.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ADSK is currently trading at $246.79, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $213.05 to $248.02. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 21.2) is in line with its historical norms (21.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 231.4% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $235.26, while resistance sits at $260.74.
Market Sentiment: ADSK scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $312.75 (+26.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ADSK is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $235.26, while resistance sits at $260.74.
Market Sentiment: ADSK scores 8/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $312.75 (+26.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$213.05 -
$248.02
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ADSK? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (8/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($312.75)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$213.05 -
$248.02
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$235.26
Resistance Level
$260.74
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.18
Wall Street Target
$312.75
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
231.4%
Profit Margin
19.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 21.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$244.82
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$242.86
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$240.91
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21â22)
$246.87
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.2, Growth: 13.8%)
$363.85
(+47%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$345.52
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.8%)
$293.69
(+19%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (37x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 36.78 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.57
Bull Case
$471.48
(+91%)
Analyst growth 77.4%, PE expands to 40.5
Base Case
$428.62
(+74%)
Market implied 77.4%, PE stable at 36.8
Bear Case
$164.32
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 31.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 21.2 to 21.7
Stabilization Target:
$252.89
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 19, 2026 5:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ADSK showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
NEUTRAL
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-30
Ro Khanna
BUY
2026-03-23
Michael T. McCaul
BUY
2026-02-27
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Advanced ADSK Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ADSK price and gamma walls.
