AER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$153.65
2.75 (1.82%)
▲
5d:
+1.49%
30d:
+3.93%
90d:
+9.02%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AER shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AER shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$167.17
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$103.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $153.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $146.84 to $152.14. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.4) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.7% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $156.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $156.33. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$146.84 -
$152.14
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
59.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($179.30)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$146.84 -
$152.14
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$147.47
Resistance Level
$156.33
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.44
Wall Street Target
$179.30
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.3%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.7% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.4 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$151.04
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$148.47
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$145.95
(-5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$153.94
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -2.7%)
$347.44
(+126%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.4, Growth: -2.7%)
$141.42
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.2, Growth: -2.7%)
$120.21
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.41 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.36
Bull Case
$148.46
(-3%)
Analyst growth -10.6%, PE expands to 8.2
Base Case
$134.96
(-12%)
Market implied -10.6%, PE stable at 7.4
Bear Case
$102.61
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.4 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$162.07
(+5.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 4:22 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:22 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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