Aercap (AER) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$141.50
1.07 (0.76%)
▲
5d:
-3.4%
30d:
-5.82%
90d:
+2.61%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AER shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AER shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.29
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $141.50, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $144.21 to $152.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.8) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.0% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AER scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+26.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $139.91. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AER scores 17/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+26.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$144.21 -
$152.11
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (17/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 26.7% below Wall St target ($179.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$144.21 -
$152.11
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$139.91
Resistance Level
$149.50
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.77
Wall Street Target
$179.30
(+26.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.3%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.8 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$135.84
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$130.41
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$125.19
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$141.77
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -2.7%)
$338.06
(+139%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.8, Growth: -2.7%)
$130.24
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.6, Growth: -2.7%)
$110.70
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.90 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.35
Bull Case
$138.22
(-2%)
Analyst growth -10.5%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$125.66
(-11%)
Market implied -10.5%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$95.49
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.8 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$160.24
(+13.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 10:41 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:41 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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