Aercap (AER) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$144.34
0.41 (0.28%)
â˛
5d:
-3.26%
30d:
-0.4%
90d:
-5.94%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AER is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: AER is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -3.1% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.41
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.47
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $144.34, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $141.58 to $147.33. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.9) is in line with its historical norms (8.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+24.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $141.59. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 47/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+24.2%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$141.58 -
$147.33
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (47/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.2% below Wall St target ($179.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 53/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$141.58 -
$147.33
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.60
Resistance Level
$149.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.93
Wall Street Target
$179.30
(+24.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.3%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.9 vs 8.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$139.87
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$135.53
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$131.33
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8â9)
$144.14
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: -2.7%)
$341.91
(+137%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.9, Growth: -2.7%)
$132.85
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.7, Growth: -2.7%)
$112.92
(-22%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.07 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.35
Bull Case
$141.67
(-2%)
Analyst growth -10.5%, PE expands to 7.8
Base Case
$128.79
(-11%)
Market implied -10.5%, PE stable at 7.1
Bear Case
$97.87
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.9 to 8.7
Stabilization Target:
$158.42
(+9.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 12:28 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:28 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:28 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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