AER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$146.75
-2.39 (-1.60%)
▼
5d:
-2.86%
30d:
+6.42%
90d:
-1.24%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AER shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AER shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$163.88
Based on 1.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$101.76
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $146.75, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $140.02 to $150.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.6) is in line with its historical norms (8.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 42.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $141.92, while resistance sits at $155.99.
Market Sentiment: AER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.88 (+15.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $141.92, while resistance sits at $155.99.
Market Sentiment: AER has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $169.88 (+15.8%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$140.02 -
$150.11
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
81.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($169.88)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$140.02 -
$150.11
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$141.92
Resistance Level
$155.99
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.58
Wall Street Target
$169.88
(+15.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
42.5%
Profit Margin
45.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.6 vs 8.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$144.99
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$143.25
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$141.53
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$146.82
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.0%)
$361.20
(+146%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.6, Growth: -1.0%)
$142.28
(-3%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.3, Growth: -1.0%)
$120.94
(-18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.58 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.78
Bull Case
$123.79
(-16%)
Analyst growth -24.9%, PE expands to 7.2
Base Case
$112.54
(-23%)
Market implied -24.9%, PE stable at 6.6
Bear Case
$101.91
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.6 to 8.9
Stabilization Target:
$152.24
(+3.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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