AER Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AER - Aercap Holdings N.V.
$146.29
-0.50 (-0.34%)
▼
5d:
-4.04%
30d:
-1.53%
90d:
+4.81%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AER shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AER shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$165.29
Based on 0.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$102.63
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AER is currently trading at $146.29, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $147.72 to $152.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.0) is in line with its historical norms (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AER is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $145.19. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 45/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $179.30 (+22.6%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$147.72 -
$152.90
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 22.6% below Wall St target ($179.30)
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$147.72 -
$152.90
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$145.19
Resistance Level
$152.82
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.03
Wall Street Target
$179.30
(+22.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
14.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-35.3%
Profit Margin
37.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 8.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.61
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$137.08
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$132.69
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$145.35
(-1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: -2.7%)
$336.38
(+130%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: -2.7%)
$134.65
(-8%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: -2.7%)
$114.45
(-22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.21 | Current EPS (TTM): $20.35
Bull Case
$144.49
(-1%)
Analyst growth -10.5%, PE expands to 7.9
Base Case
$131.35
(-10%)
Market implied -10.5%, PE stable at 7.2
Bear Case
$99.82
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$160.24
(+9.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+9.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 3:38 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:38 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AER showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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