PROG (PRG) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
PRG - PROG Holdings, Inc.
$30.27
-1.56 (-4.90%)
▼
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
-6.98%
90d:
-30.08%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 28, 2026
4d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Oct 21, 2026 at $30.65 · last confirmed Oct 21, 2026
Strength: 5.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PRG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: PRG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.2% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.81
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$37.14
18.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 7.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: PRG is currently trading at $30.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.09 to $34.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.7) compared to its historical average (7.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PRG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $29.35, while resistance sits at $31.93. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PRG scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+63.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, PRG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $29.35, while resistance sits at $31.93. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: PRG scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $52.00 (+63.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$30.09 -
$34.25
Company Quality Score
65/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
48th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.7%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 48th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading 63.4% below Wall St target ($52.00)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 63/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.09 -
$34.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$3.44
(11.4%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.35
Resistance Level
$31.93
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.74
Wall Street Target
$52.00
(+63.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-4.2%
Profit Margin
5.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.7 vs 7.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$29.54
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$27.41
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$25.44
(-20%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$31.93
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.9%)
$158.61
(+398%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.7, Growth: 12.9%)
$45.81
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.9, Growth: 12.9%)
$38.94
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (10x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.82 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.12
Bull Case
$59.96
(+88%)
Analyst growth 77.8%, PE expands to 10.8
Base Case
$54.51
(+71%)
Market implied 77.8%, PE stable at 9.8
Bear Case
$20.84
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 8.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.7 to 7.2
Stabilization Target:
$39.95
(+25.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 23, 2026 3:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:59 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is PRG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's PRG price and gamma walls.
