AERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$15.65
0.35 (2.29%)
▲
5d:
-8.43%
30d:
-8.85%
90d:
+3.03%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 13, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AERO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AERO shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.80
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.98
25.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AERO is currently trading at $15.65, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.32 to $17.91. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.4% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AERO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.82, while resistance sits at $18.16.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.10 (+73.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AERO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $14.82, while resistance sits at $18.16.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.10 (+73.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$16.32 -
$17.91
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 73.2% below Wall St target ($27.10)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.4% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.32 -
$17.91
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.82
Resistance Level
$18.16
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.12
Wall Street Target
$27.10
(+73.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
13.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.3%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.12
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$14.60
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$14.11
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$15.64
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 40.2%)
$115.69
(+639%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: 40.2%)
$43.11
(+176%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: 40.2%)
$36.64
(+134%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 0.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $22.46
Bull Case
$8.41
(-46%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 0.8
Base Case
$7.65
(-51%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 0.7
Bear Case
$10.40
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 0.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$17.35
(+10.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 6:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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