AERO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
$13.72
0.44 (3.31%)
▲
5d:
-12.89%
30d:
-7.61%
90d:
-14.14%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 12, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AERO is down 12.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AERO is down 12.9% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.43
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.38
35.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AERO is currently trading at $13.72, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.67 to $16.02. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.8) compared to its historical average (8.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AERO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.15, while resistance sits at $16.16. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AERO scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.16 (+97.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AERO is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $13.15, while resistance sits at $16.16. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: AERO scores 32/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $27.16 (+97.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$14.67 -
$16.02
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (32/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 97.9% below Wall St target ($27.16)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.67 -
$16.02
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$13.15
Resistance Level
$16.16
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.83
Wall Street Target
$27.16
(+97.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
12.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-56.3%
Profit Margin
3.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.8 vs 8.8
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$12.59
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$11.56
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$10.61
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$13.68
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 75.4%)
$136.08
(+892%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.8, Growth: 75.4%)
$46.30
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 75.4%)
$39.36
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 1.01 | Current EPS (TTM): $13.16
Bull Case
$7.30
(-47%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 1.1
Base Case
$6.64
(-52%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 1.0
Bear Case
$9.03
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 0.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.8 to 8.8
Stabilization Target:
$17.68
(+28.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:16 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:16 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AERO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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