AII Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AII - American Integrity Insurance Group, Inc.
$19.02
-0.14 (-0.73%)
▼
5d:
-1.3%
30d:
+13.55%
90d:
+0.96%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 11, 2026
28d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AII shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.06
Based on 5.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.18
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AII is currently trading at $19.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $16.88 to $18.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 6.3) is in line with its historical norms (6.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.75 (+24.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AII is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $19.56. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AII has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.75 (+24.9%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$16.88 -
$18.88
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
61.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 24.9% below Wall St target ($23.75)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$16.88 -
$18.88
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$17.78
Resistance Level
$19.56
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.32
Wall Street Target
$23.75
(+24.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-63.4%
Profit Margin
27.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.3 vs 6.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.87
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$18.72
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$18.57
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→7)
$19.11
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.8%)
$82.07
(+332%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.3, Growth: 7.8%)
$23.80
(+25%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.4, Growth: 7.8%)
$20.23
(+6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 3.94 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.86
Bull Case
$13.06
(-31%)
Analyst growth -38.0%, PE expands to 4.3
Base Case
$11.87
(-38%)
Market implied -38.0%, PE stable at 3.9
Bear Case
$13.03
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 3.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.3 to 6.5
Stabilization Target:
$19.58
(+2.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 5:37 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:37 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AII showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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