AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$134.82
2.43 (1.84%)
▲
5d:
-7.18%
30d:
+4.13%
90d:
+24.33%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 22, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AIR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AIR shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$178.88
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$111.07
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 20.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $134.82, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $132.98 to $145.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 24.1) compared to its historical average (20.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $131.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $131.26. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$132.98 -
$145.98
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
22.9%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($145.20)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 4.8% growth which is achievable
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$132.98 -
$145.98
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$131.27
Resistance Level
$153.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
24.12
Wall Street Target
$145.20
(+7.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.8% premium
PE vs Historical
24.1 vs 20.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$141.29
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$148.07
(+10%)
3-Year Target
$155.18
(+15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$134.48
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 24.1, Growth: 13.9%)
$199.47
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.9%)
$165.99
(+23%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.9%)
$141.09
(+5%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (29x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.62
Bull Case
$176.20
(+31%)
Analyst growth 21.0%, PE expands to 31.5
Base Case
$160.19
(+19%)
Market implied 21.0%, PE stable at 28.7
Bear Case
$90.03
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:33 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
