AAR (AIR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$102.48
2.58 (2.59%)
▲
5d:
-11.74%
30d:
-17.27%
90d:
-28.64%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 1, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AIR is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: AIR is down 11.7% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.60
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.14
8.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $102.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $113.43 to $131.34. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 17.9) compared to its historical average (21.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 4.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $99.30, while resistance sits at $122.00.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $154.50 (+54.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $99.30, while resistance sits at $122.00.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 25/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $154.50 (+54.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$113.43 -
$131.34
Company Quality Score
36/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 54.7% below Wall St target ($154.50)
- WARNING: Composite score 36/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$113.43 -
$131.34
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$99.30
Resistance Level
$122.00
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Oct 1, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
17.87
Wall Street Target
$154.50
(+54.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
17.9 vs 21.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$94.61
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$89.59
(-10%)
3-Year Target
$84.84
(-15%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 18→21)
$100.17
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$168.72
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 17.9, Growth: 13.9%)
$147.81
(+48%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$125.64
(+26%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (18x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 20.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.91
Bull Case
$127.08
(+27%)
Analyst growth 13.8%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$115.52
(+16%)
Market implied 13.8%, PE stable at 20.7
Bear Case
$69.00
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 17.9 to 21.1
Stabilization Target:
$117.95
(+18.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+18.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 02, 2026 11:33 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:33 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
