AAR (AIR) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$125.48
1.01 (0.81%)
▲
5d:
-0.14%
30d:
-15.31%
90d:
-1.38%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 22, 2026
9d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AIR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AIR shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite oversold pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$180.60
Based on 9.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$112.14
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 21.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $125.48, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $127.81 to $145.95. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 22.4) is in line with its historical norms (21.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $122.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.20 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $122.02. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AIR scores 70/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $145.20 (+15.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$127.81 -
$145.95
Company Quality Score
68/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
33th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 33th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (70/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($145.20)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 70/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$127.81 -
$145.95
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$8.64
(6.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$122.02
Resistance Level
$135.98
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.45
Wall Street Target
$145.20
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
23.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.3%
Profit Margin
5.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.1% premium
PE vs Historical
22.5 vs 21.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$128.12
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$130.81
(+4%)
3-Year Target
$133.55
(+6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 22→21)
PE COMPRESSION
$125.54
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.4, Growth: 13.9%)
$185.66
(+48%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 13.9%)
$166.82
(+33%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 13.9%)
$141.80
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (22x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.85
Bull Case
$157.81
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.3%, PE expands to 28.2
Base Case
$143.46
(+14%)
Market implied 15.3%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$84.64
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 12, 2026 6:40 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:40 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
