AIR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AIR - AAR Corp.
$132.26
-2.02 (-1.50%)
▼
5d:
+0.82%
30d:
+21.97%
90d:
+27.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 15, 2026
21d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AIR trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
📊 HOLD: AIR trades at premium valuation expecting 6.5% growth. Hold existing positions but don't chase. Wait for better entry.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$175.40
Based on 9.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 19.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AIR is currently trading at $132.26, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $107.24 to $127.69. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 23.8) compared to its historical average (19.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AIR is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $136.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: AIR has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$107.24 -
$127.69
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Options IV Signal
38th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AIR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 38th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($131.67)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 6.5% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$107.24 -
$127.69
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$10.63
(8.0%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$113.54
Resistance Level
$136.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
23.77
Wall Street Target
$131.67
(-1.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
92.0%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.5% premium
PE vs Historical
23.8 vs 19.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$143.01
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$152.30
(+13%)
3-Year Target
$162.20
(+21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 24→20)
PE COMPRESSION
$134.42
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 23.8, Growth: 15.2%)
$205.53
(+53%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 15.2%)
$188.30
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.5, Growth: 15.2%)
$160.06
(+19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (24x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.64 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.55
Bull Case
$184.19
(+37%)
Analyst growth 24.1%, PE expands to 32.6
Base Case
$167.45
(+25%)
Market implied 24.1%, PE stable at 29.6
Bear Case
$91.72
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:53 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:53 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AIR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
10
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
26175 shares
2026-03-27
John Mcclain Holmes III
SELL
60000 shares
2026-03-26
Sarah Louise Flanagan
SELL
10750 shares
2026-02-04
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Advanced AIR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AIR price and gamma walls.
