ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$107.32
3.78 (3.65%)
▲
5d:
+11.88%
30d:
+33.63%
90d:
+28.31%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ALGT is 10.2% above its trading range ($97.39). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ALGT is 10.2% above its trading range ($97.39). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$204.83
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$127.19
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $107.32, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.52 to $97.39. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.1) is in line with its historical norms (9.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $107.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $107.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.7% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$79.52 -
$97.39
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+10.2% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.7%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($105.08)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.7% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.52 -
$97.39
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$80.00
Resistance Level
$107.88
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
10.10
Wall Street Target
$105.08
(-2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.7% premium
PE vs Historical
10.1 vs 9.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$108.07
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$108.83
(+1%)
3-Year Target
$109.59
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→10)
PE COMPRESSION
$107.41
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 167.3%)
$781.00
(+628%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 10.1, Growth: 167.3%)
$362.20
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.6, Growth: 167.3%)
$307.87
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 9:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
18757 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
861 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
56243 shares
2026-02-09
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