Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$67.67
-2.69 (-3.82%)
▼
5d:
+1.03%
30d:
-11.93%
90d:
-31.74%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 04, 2026
10d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALGT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ALGT shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$174.48
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$108.34
37.5% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $67.67, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $70.44 to $79.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (9.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $65.12, while resistance sits at $76.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.43 (+73.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $65.12, while resistance sits at $76.79. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.8% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $117.43 (+73.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$70.44 -
$79.10
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
74.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.8%)
- BULLISH: Trading 73.5% below Wall St target ($117.43)
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$70.44 -
$79.10
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$65.12
Resistance Level
$76.79
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.87
Wall Street Target
$117.43
(+73.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 9.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$61.72
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$56.28
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$51.33
(-24%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$67.96
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 78.9%)
$659.95
(+875%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 78.9%)
$228.39
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.8, Growth: 78.9%)
$194.13
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 6.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $10.51
Bull Case
$81.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$67.67
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$51.77
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 9.1
Stabilization Target:
$89.60
(+32.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+32.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 24, 2026 1:34 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:34 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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