ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$104.29
-2.60 (-2.43%)
▼
5d:
-6.16%
30d:
+21.21%
90d:
+22.35%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
18d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$231.89
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$143.99
27.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $104.29, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $91.10 to $115.00. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (9.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.57 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $103.70. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.57 (+29.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$91.10 -
$115.00
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 29.0% below Wall St target ($134.57)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -6.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$91.10 -
$115.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$103.70
Resistance Level
$123.63
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.67
Wall Street Target
$134.57
(+29.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 9.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$99.81
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$95.51
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$91.41
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→10)
$104.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 58.3%)
$884.18
(+748%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: 58.3%)
$351.98
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: 58.3%)
$299.18
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 9.9
Stabilization Target:
$119.08
(+14.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 10:18 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:18 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
18757 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
861 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
56243 shares
2026-02-09
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