ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$82.98
-4.69 (-5.35%)
▼
5d:
-8.81%
30d:
+15.3%
90d:
-9.89%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$193.75
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$120.31
31.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $82.98, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $74.32 to $86.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (10.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 5.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.64, while resistance sits at $93.68. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.82 (+20.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $69.64, while resistance sits at $93.68. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: ALGT has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $99.82 (+20.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$74.32 -
$86.16
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 20.3% below Wall St target ($99.82)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -8.8% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$74.32 -
$86.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$69.64
Resistance Level
$93.68
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.34
Wall Street Target
$99.82
(+20.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
-1.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-5.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 10.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-5.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.08
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$73.48
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$69.14
(-17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$82.90
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 139.1%)
$735.74
(+787%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: 139.1%)
$280.06
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: 139.1%)
$238.05
(+187%)
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 10.0
Stabilization Target:
$99.50
(+19.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+19.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 10:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:56 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
18757 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
861 shares
2026-02-10
Maurice J Gallagher Jr
SELL
56243 shares
2026-02-09
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