ALGT Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$81.63
-0.22 (-0.27%)
▼
5d:
-3.17%
30d:
-16.77%
90d:
+1.64%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$221.59
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$137.59
40.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $81.63, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $84.72 to $102.28. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.9) compared to its historical average (9.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.99, while resistance sits at $91.12.
Market Sentiment: ALGT scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.36 (+64.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $73.99, while resistance sits at $91.12.
Market Sentiment: ALGT scores 75/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $134.36 (+64.6%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$84.72 -
$102.28
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 64.6% below Wall St target ($134.36)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 17% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$84.72 -
$102.28
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$73.99
Resistance Level
$91.12
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.89
Wall Street Target
$134.36
(+64.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.9 vs 9.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$73.47
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$66.12
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$59.51
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→10)
$82.95
(+2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 78.4%)
$802.08
(+883%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.9, Growth: 78.4%)
$275.50
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.9, Growth: 78.4%)
$234.18
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (16x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.45 | Forward EPS (Implied): $4.98
Bull Case
$98.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$81.85
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.5
Bear Case
$62.62
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 14.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.9 to 9.6
Stabilization Target:
$113.79
(+39.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+39.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 5:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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