Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$78.27
2.20 (2.89%)
▲
5d:
+3.18%
30d:
-7.31%
90d:
-9.03%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 11, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ALGT shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 10.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$214.62
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$133.26
41.3% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $78.27, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.05 to $89.67. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 6.7) compared to its historical average (9.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 10.6% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $72.17, while resistance sits at $81.84.
Market Sentiment: ALGT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.43 (+69.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $72.17, while resistance sits at $81.84.
Market Sentiment: ALGT scores 60/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $132.43 (+69.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$75.05 -
$89.67
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
90.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 69.2% below Wall St target ($132.43)
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 60/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.05 -
$89.67
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$72.17
Resistance Level
$81.85
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Sep 11, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
6.68
Wall Street Target
$132.43
(+69.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-10.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
6.7 vs 9.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-10.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$70.44
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$63.40
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$57.06
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$80.34
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 83.8%)
$798.14
(+920%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 6.7, Growth: 83.8%)
$264.16
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.7, Growth: 83.8%)
$224.54
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 6.39 | Forward EPS (Implied): $12.26
Bull Case
$94.51
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.7
Base Case
$78.27
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$59.88
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 6.7 to 9.4
Stabilization Target:
$110.21
(+40.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+40.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 13, 2026 7:17 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:17 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
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