Allegiant Travel (ALGT) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ALGT - Allegiant Travel Company
$77.61
2.15 (2.85%)
▲
5d:
-1.87%
30d:
+3.78%
90d:
-32.87%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
29d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ALGT shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$192.88
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.77
35.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ALGT is currently trading at $77.61, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $75.55 to $80.08. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.2) compared to its historical average (9.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $74.33, while resistance sits at $85.00.
Market Sentiment: ALGT scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.93 (+61.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ALGT is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $74.33, while resistance sits at $85.00.
Market Sentiment: ALGT scores 63/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.93 (+61.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$75.55 -
$80.08
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (63/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 61.0% below Wall St target ($124.93)
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 12% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$75.55 -
$80.08
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$74.33
Resistance Level
$85.00
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 2, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.21
Wall Street Target
$124.93
(+61.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
36.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.6%
Profit Margin
0.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.2 vs 9.2
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$71.56
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$65.98
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$60.83
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$77.63
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 70.6%)
$741.25
(+855%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.2, Growth: 70.6%)
$261.93
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.1, Growth: 70.6%)
$222.64
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 6.44 | Forward EPS (Implied): $12.05
Bull Case
$93.71
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 6.8
Base Case
$77.61
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 6.4
Bear Case
$59.37
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 5.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.2 to 9.2
Stabilization Target:
$99.05
(+27.6%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+27.6%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 03, 2026 9:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ALGT showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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