APA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
APA - APA Corporation Common Stock
$34.21
0.77 (2.30%)
▲
5d:
+5.39%
30d:
-9.97%
90d:
-11.44%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 10, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
22d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.0/10
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1 traders called APA this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.9% annual earnings decline despite 32% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: APA appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -7.9% annual earnings decline despite 32% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$18.52
Based on -14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$11.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: APA is currently trading at $34.21, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.81 to $36.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.1) compared to its historical average (10.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.9% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 32.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.79 (+28.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $35.22. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $42.79 (+28.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$32.81 -
$36.97
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.0% below Wall St target ($42.79)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.81 -
$36.97
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.77
Resistance Level
$35.22
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 10, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.11
Wall Street Target
$42.79
(+28.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
32.2%
Profit Margin
18.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.9% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.1 vs 10.4
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.80
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$28.37
(-15%)
3-Year Target
$26.12
(-22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→10)
$33.51
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -32.9%)
$65.49
(+96%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.1, Growth: -32.9%)
$24.38
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.9, Growth: -32.9%)
$20.72
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.18 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.07
Bull Case
$37.11
(+11%)
Analyst growth 1.3%, PE expands to 9.0
Base Case
$33.74
(+1%)
Market implied 1.3%, PE stable at 8.2
Bear Case
$22.64
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.1 to 10.4
Stabilization Target:
$42.89
(+28.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+28.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 11:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:11 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is APA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Matthew Regis Bob
SELL
23000 shares
2026-03-18
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Advanced APA Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's APA price and gamma walls.
