Is APA stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, APA is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: APA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of APA stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for APA to be between $34.61 and $40.79. The current price is $43.39.

What is the analyst price target for APA?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for APA is $43.58. This implies a potential upside of 0.4% from current levels.

APA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

APA - APA Corporation Common Stock

CRUDE PETROLEUM & NATURAL GAS

$43.39

-1.00 (-2.25%) ▼

5d: +7.22%

30d: +19.14%

90d: +13.17%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your APA Gains

Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Aug 05, 2026 0d

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $37.63 · last confirmed Aug 17, 2026

Strength: 5.6/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: APA shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: -27.7%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$21.72

Based on -11.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$13.49

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.2x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: APA is currently trading at $43.39, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.61 to $40.79. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 10.4) is in line with its historical norms (10.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, APA is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $38.21, while resistance sits at $45.05.

Market Sentiment: APA scores 0/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position EXTENDED

Historical Trading Range $34.61 - $40.79

Company Quality Score 39/100 (SELL)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 20.0%

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All Signals

BEARISH: Price extended above range (+6.4% above its trading range)
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (0/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($43.58)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 39/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $34.61 - $40.79

Current vs Trading Range EXTENDED

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $38.21

Resistance Level $45.05

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 10.41

Wall Street Target $43.58 (+0.4%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 9.2%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 26.3%

Profit Margin 19.6%

Valuation Premium vs History +0.8% premium

PE vs Historical 10.4 vs 10.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +0.8% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $43.74 (+1%)

2-Year Target $44.09 (+2%)

3-Year Target $44.44 (+2%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 10→10) PE COMPRESSION $43.54 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: -27.7%) $60.98 (+41%)

Base: (SPY PE: 10.4, Growth: -27.7%) $31.63 (-27%)

Bear: (PE: 8.8, Growth: -27.7%) $26.89 (-38%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Trailing PE: 9.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $4.84

Bull Case $42.05 (-3%)

Analyst growth -13.9%, PE expands to 10.1

Base Case $38.23 (-12%)

Market implied -13.9%, PE stable at 9.2

Bear Case $30.19 (-30%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 22, 2026 5:50 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:50 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Matthew Regis Bob SELL 23000 shares 2026-03-18

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