AR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AR - ANTERO RESOURCES CORPORATION
$34.71
0.18 (0.52%)
▲
5d:
+2.36%
30d:
-5.55%
90d:
-19.97%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.6/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 161% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: AR appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -6.3% annual earnings decline despite 161% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$50.71
Based on 3.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$31.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AR is currently trading at $34.71, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $34.20 to $37.11. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.4) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 160.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.82, while resistance sits at $35.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.15 (+44.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AR is showing sideways momentum. Immediate support is located at $32.82, while resistance sits at $35.86.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $50.15 (+44.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$34.20 -
$37.11
Company Quality Score
58/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 44.5% below Wall St target ($50.15)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$34.20 -
$37.11
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$32.82
Resistance Level
$35.86
Current Trend
Sideways
Technical data as of
Jun 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.42
Wall Street Target
$50.15
(+44.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
34.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
160.6%
Profit Margin
17.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.4 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$32.52
(-6%)
2-Year Target
$30.47
(-12%)
3-Year Target
$28.55
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→9)
$34.62
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 3.6%)
$113.26
(+226%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 3.6%)
$38.60
(+11%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 3.6%)
$32.81
(-6%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.09
Bull Case
$57.48
(+66%)
Analyst growth 51.3%, PE expands to 12.3
Base Case
$52.25
(+51%)
Market implied 51.3%, PE stable at 11.2
Bear Case
$23.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$42.08
(+21.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+21.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 6:55 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:55 PM
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| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is AR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Benjamin A Hardesty
SELL
12000 shares
2026-03-19
Yvette K Schultz
SELL
15000 shares
2026-03-09
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