ARLO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARLO - Arlo Technologies, Inc.
$14.72
0.25 (1.73%)
▲
5d:
+14.37%
30d:
+8.63%
90d:
+4.77%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
2d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ARLO is 7.3% above its trading range ($13.72). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: ARLO is 7.3% above its trading range ($13.72). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$24.35
Based on 10.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.12
2.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 15.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARLO is currently trading at $14.72, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $12.65 to $13.72. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.0) is in line with its historical norms (15.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARLO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.67 (+40.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARLO is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $14.91. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: ARLO has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $20.67 (+40.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$12.65 -
$13.72
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ARLO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.3% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.4% below Wall St target ($20.67)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$12.65 -
$13.72
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$12.38
Resistance Level
$14.92
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.98
Wall Street Target
$20.67
(+40.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
26.3%
Profit Margin
5.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.0 vs 15.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$14.68
(0%)
2-Year Target
$14.63
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$14.59
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 15→15)
$14.71
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 17.0%)
$32.64
(+122%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.0, Growth: 17.0%)
$23.58
(+60%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.7, Growth: 17.0%)
$20.05
(+36%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (17x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (15x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 16.67 | Forward EPS (Implied): $0.88
Bull Case
$17.77
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 17.5
Base Case
$14.72
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 16.7
Bear Case
$11.26
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 15.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.0 to 15.1
Stabilization Target:
$14.84
(+0.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 10:04 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:04 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARLO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
14
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-17
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-06
Kurtis Joseph Binder
SELL
179419 shares
2026-03-12
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Advanced ARLO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ARLO price and gamma walls.
