Is ARM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ARM is currently a WAIT with low confidence. 📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

What is the fair value of ARM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARM to be between $237.97 and $272.94. The current price is $234.86.

What is the analyst price target for ARM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARM is $286.44. This implies a potential upside of 22.0% from current levels.

ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$234.86

0.04 (0.02%) ▲

5d: -6.45%

30d: -16.29%

90d: -42.97%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

Protect Your ARM Gains

Analysis Updated: Sep 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why ARM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $278.30 · last confirmed Sep 1, 2026

Strength: 8.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$96.51

Based on 12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$59.92

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $234.86, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.97 to $272.94. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 109.8) is in line with its historical norms (100.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $229.30. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $286.44 (+22.0%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $237.97 - $272.94

Company Quality Score 53/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 80.5%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading 22.0% below Wall St target ($286.44)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 52/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $237.97 - $272.94

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $229.30

Resistance Level $267.69

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Sep 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 109.79

Wall Street Target $286.44 (+22.0%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 108.3%

Profit Margin 20.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +2.9% premium

PE vs Historical 109.8 vs 100.9 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +2.9% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $241.67 (+3%)

2-Year Target $248.68 (+6%)

3-Year Target $255.89 (+9%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 110→101) PE COMPRESSION $235.17 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 109.8, Growth: 21.4%) $419.86 (+79%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.4%) $77.36 (-67%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 21.4%) $65.76 (-72%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (115x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (110x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 114.94 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.04

Bull Case $283.59 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 120.7

Base Case $234.86 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 114.9

Bear Case $179.67 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 103.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: September 03, 2026 1:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:29 AM

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Technical Signals Check

Is ARM showing a specific setup today?

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Jason Child SELL 21280 shares 2026-04-22

Rene A Haas SELL 9299 shares 2026-04-14

Rene A Haas SELL 7986 shares 2026-03-26

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Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the ARM architecture, which is used in 99% of the world's smartphone CPU cores, and it also has high market share in other battery-powered devices like wearables, tablets, or sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different types of licenses depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers like Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or delete instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $159,292,120,170

Employees: 8,330

Listed Since: 2023-09-14

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001973239

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