What is the fair value of ARM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARM to be between $251.76 and $300.95. The current price is $278.65.

What is the analyst price target for ARM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARM is $287.79. This implies a potential upside of 3.3% from current levels.

ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$278.65

6.78 (2.49%) ▲

5d: -2.8%

30d: +0.59%

90d: +25.97%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Jul 29, 2026 0d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

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Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $282.57 · last confirmed Aug 13, 2026

Strength: 9.0/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: ARM is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 9.5% expected growth, valuation appears stretched. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$96.51

Based on 12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$59.92

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $278.65, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $251.76 to $300.95. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 130.3) compared to its historical average (99.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 9.5% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $219.39, while resistance sits at $299.29.

Market Sentiment: ARM scores 30/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position FAIR

Historical Trading Range $251.76 - $300.95

Company Quality Score 43/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 45.2%

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All Signals

NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (30/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($287.79)
NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 9.5% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $251.76 - $300.95

Current vs Trading Range FAIR

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $219.39

Resistance Level $299.29

Current Trend Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 130.26

Wall Street Target $287.79 (+3.3%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 108.3%

Profit Margin 20.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +9.5% premium

PE vs Historical 130.3 vs 99.3 STRETCHED

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +9.5% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $305.12 (+10%)

2-Year Target $334.11 (+20%)

3-Year Target $365.85 (+31%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 130→99) PE COMPRESSION $278.90 (+0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 130.3, Growth: 21.4%) $498.14 (+79%)

Base: (SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.4%) $77.36 (-72%)

Bear: (PE: 17.2, Growth: 21.4%) $65.76 (-76%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

Forward PE: 120.48 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.31

Bull Case $336.47 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 126.5

Base Case $278.65 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 120.5

Bear Case $213.17 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 108.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: August 14, 2026 12:11 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:11 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Jason Child SELL 21280 shares 2026-04-22

Rene A Haas SELL 9299 shares 2026-04-14

Rene A Haas SELL 7986 shares 2026-03-26

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Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the ARM architecture, which is used in 99% of the world's smartphone CPU cores, and it also has high market share in other battery-powered devices like wearables, tablets, or sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different types of licenses depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers like Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or delete instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $159,292,120,170

Employees: 8,330

Listed Since: 2023-09-14

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001973239

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