Is ARM stock a Buy, Sell, or Hold?

Based on our analysis, ARM is currently a HOLD with moderate confidence. 📊 HOLD: ARM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

What is the fair value of ARM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARM to be between $219.60 and $291.77. The current price is $196.79.

What is the analyst price target for ARM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARM is $290.70. This implies a potential upside of 47.7% from current levels.

Arm (ARM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$196.79

-9.18 (-4.46%) ▼

5d: -11.89%

30d: -36.0%

90d: -29.86%

HOLD

MODERATE Confidence

Protect Your ARM Gains

Analysis Updated: Nov 2, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 TODAY

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why ARM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 30, 2026 at $205.97 · last confirmed Oct 30, 2026

Strength: 8.9/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ARM shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$96.51

Based on 12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$59.92

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $196.79, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $219.60 to $291.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 92.0) compared to its historical average (105.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 108.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $196.12. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 4.5% recently.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 50/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $290.70 (+47.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position OVERSOLD

Historical Trading Range $219.60 - $291.77

Company Quality Score 54/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 74.8%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (50/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BEARISH: Downward momentum (-4.5%)
BULLISH: Trading 47.7% below Wall St target ($290.70)
NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (50/100) — watch for confirmation
CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.9%) - monitor closely

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $219.60 - $291.77

Current vs Trading Range OVERSOLD

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $196.12

Resistance Level $237.88

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Nov 2, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 91.99

Wall Street Target $290.71 (+47.7%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 108.3%

Profit Margin 20.2%

Valuation Discount vs History -4.4% cheaper

PE vs Historical 92.0 vs 105.3 CHEAP

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -4.4% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $188.13 (-4%)

2-Year Target $179.85 (-9%)

3-Year Target $171.94 (-13%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 92→105) $196.81 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 92.0, Growth: 21.4%) $351.80 (+79%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.4%) $75.95 (-61%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.4%) $64.56 (-67%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (93x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (92x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 93.46 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.11

Bull Case $237.62 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 98.1

Base Case $196.79 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 93.5

Bear Case $150.54 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 84.1

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 92.0 to 105.3

Stabilization Target: $225.26 (+14.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +14.5%

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Last updated: November 02, 2026 9:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:16 PM

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the ARM architecture, which is used in 99% of the world's smartphone CPU cores, and it also has high market share in other battery-powered devices like wearables, tablets, or sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different types of licenses depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers like Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or delete instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $159,292,120,170

Employees: 8,330

Listed Since: 2023-09-14

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001973239

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