ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$252.09
9.50 (3.92%)
▲
5d:
+5.45%
30d:
-12.07%
90d:
-26.49%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 4, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
See why ARM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Sep 3, 2026 at $242.59 · last confirmed Sep 4, 2026
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ARM shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite fair pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.51
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $252.09, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $237.86 to $271.97. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 117.8) compared to its historical average (101.0). At these levels, the market is pricing in 5.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.46, while resistance sits at $267.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARM scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $286.44 (+13.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $225.46, while resistance sits at $267.69. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ARM scores 84/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $286.44 (+13.6%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$237.86 -
$271.97
Company Quality Score
63/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
85.7%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (84/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+3.9%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($286.44)
- NEUTRAL: PE elevated vs history but 5.3% growth expectation is conservative given 108% recent growth
- BULLISH: Bottoming setup score 84/100 — corrected, stabilizing, and turning up
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$237.86 -
$271.97
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$225.46
Resistance Level
$267.69
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 4, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
117.84
Wall Street Target
$286.44
(+13.6%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
22.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
108.3%
Profit Margin
20.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+5.3% premium
PE vs Historical
117.8 vs 101.0
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+5.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$265.45
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$279.52
(+11%)
3-Year Target
$294.33
(+17%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 118→101)
PE COMPRESSION
$252.27
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 117.8, Growth: 21.4%)
$450.66
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 21.4%)
$77.36
(-69%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 21.4%)
$65.76
(-74%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 106.38 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.37
Bull Case
$304.40
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 111.7
Base Case
$252.09
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 106.4
Bear Case
$192.85
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 95.7
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 05, 2026 6:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:52 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jason Child
SELL
21280 shares
2026-04-22
Rene A Haas
SELL
9299 shares
2026-04-14
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7986 shares
2026-03-26
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