What is the fair value of ARM stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for ARM to be between $253.78 and $308.07. The current price is $255.39.

What is the analyst price target for ARM?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for ARM is $290.70. This implies a potential upside of 13.8% from current levels.

Arm (ARM) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

$255.39

0.15 (0.06%) ▲

5d: -15.59%

30d: +6.85%

90d: -7.8%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Oct 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Nov 04, 2026 21d

NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)

See why ARM plays a critical role in the upcoming CPU supercycle alongside GPUs. Read Deep Dive →

Smart Money Accumulation

Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →

Signal fired Oct 6, 2026 at $302.80 · last confirmed Oct 12, 2026

Strength: 9.3/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: ARM is down 15.6% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 21.4%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$96.51

Based on 12.7% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$59.92

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $255.39, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $253.78 to $308.07. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 119.4) compared to its historical average (105.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.

Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $243.60, while resistance sits at $318.36.

Market Sentiment: ARM scores 20/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $290.70 (+13.8%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $253.78 - $308.07

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 55.7%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
BEARISH: Weak technical setup (20/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($290.70)
NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $253.78 - $308.07

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $243.60

Resistance Level $318.36

Current Trend Downtrend

Technical data as of Oct 13, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 119.39

Wall Street Target $290.71 (+13.8%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 22.4%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 108.3%

Profit Margin 20.2%

Valuation Premium vs History +4.3% premium

PE vs Historical 119.4 vs 105.2 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): +4.3% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $266.37 (+4%)

2-Year Target $277.83 (+9%)

3-Year Target $289.77 (+14%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 119→105) PE COMPRESSION $255.34 (0%)

Earnings growth offset by PE compression

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 119.4, Growth: 21.4%) $456.56 (+79%)

Base: (SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 21.4%) $75.95 (-70%)

Bear: (PE: 16.9, Growth: 21.4%) $64.56 (-75%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (152x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (119x PE) as earnings recover.

Forward PE: 151.52 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.68

Bull Case $308.20 (+21%)

Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 159.1

Base Case $255.24 (0%)

Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 151.5

Bear Case $195.26 (-24%)

Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 136.4

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

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Last updated: October 13, 2026 5:14 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:14 PM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

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Net

INSIDERS SELLING

Recent Transactions

Jason Child SELL 21280 shares 2026-04-22

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Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares

Semiconductors & Related Devices

About

Arm Holdings is the IP owner and developer of the ARM architecture, which is used in 99% of the world's smartphone CPU cores, and it also has high market share in other battery-powered devices like wearables, tablets, or sensors. Arm licenses its architecture for a fee, offering different types of licenses depending on the flexibility the customer needs. Customers like Apple or Qualcomm buy architectural licenses, which allow them to modify the architecture and add or delete instructions to tailor the chips to their specific needs. Other clients directly buy off-the-shelf designs from Arm. Both off-the-shelf and architectural customers pay a royalty fee per chip shipped.

Exchange: XNAS

Market Cap: $159,292,120,170

Employees: 8,330

Listed Since: 2023-09-14

Website: Visit

CIK: 0001973239

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