ARM Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ARM - Arm Holdings plc American Depositary Shares
$380.81
38.58 (11.27%)
▲
5d:
+11.05%
30d:
+72.15%
90d:
+228.99%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
NEW THESIS The Datacenter CPU Renaissance (2026)
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Strength: 10.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ARM shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$96.51
Based on 12.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$59.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ARM is currently trading at $380.81, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $219.71 to $361.61. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 178.0) compared to its historical average (81.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 29.7% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $298.38, while resistance sits at $427.99. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $257.30. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ARM is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $298.38, while resistance sits at $427.99. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 11.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $257.30. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$219.71 -
$361.61
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
40.5%
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View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+5.3% above its trading range)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+11.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 32.4% above Wall St target ($257.30)
- NEUTRAL: Trading at premium valuation - market expects 29.7% growth which is achievable
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$219.71 -
$361.61
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$298.38
Resistance Level
$427.99
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
178.02
Wall Street Target
$257.30
(-32.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
20.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
47.9%
Profit Margin
18.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+29.7% premium
PE vs Historical
178.0 vs 81.7
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+29.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$493.91
(+30%)
2-Year Target
$640.60
(+68%)
3-Year Target
$830.86
(+118%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 178→82)
PE COMPRESSION
$381.32
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 178.0, Growth: 21.4%)
$680.77
(+79%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.9, Growth: 21.4%)
$83.83
(-78%)
Bear:
(PE: 18.6, Growth: 21.4%)
$71.25
(-81%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Forward PE: 156.25 | Forward EPS (Implied): $2.44
Bull Case
$459.83
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 164.1
Base Case
$380.81
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 156.3
Bear Case
$291.32
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 140.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 14, 2026 6:00 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ARM showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jason Child
SELL
21280 shares
2026-04-22
Rene A Haas
SELL
9299 shares
2026-04-14
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SELL
7986 shares
2026-03-26
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