ASIC Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASIC - Ategrity Specialty Insurance Company Holdings
$23.90
-0.12 (-0.50%)
▼
5d:
-4.48%
30d:
-5.98%
90d:
+21.75%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASIC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ASIC shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.6% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$34.13
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$21.19
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASIC is currently trading at $23.90, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.02 to $24.91. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 9.6) compared to its historical average (8.4). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.23, while resistance sits at $26.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASIC is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $22.23, while resistance sits at $26.00.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.50 (+19.2%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$23.02 -
$24.91
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.02 -
$24.91
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$22.23
Resistance Level
$26.00
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
9.61
Wall Street Target
$28.50
(+19.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
45.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
71.8%
Profit Margin
20.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.6% premium
PE vs Historical
9.6 vs 8.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.00
(+5%)
2-Year Target
$26.15
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$27.35
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 10→8)
PE COMPRESSION
$23.92
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.8%)
$82.18
(+244%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 9.6, Growth: 16.8%)
$38.08
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 8.2, Growth: 16.8%)
$32.37
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (10x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$30.44
(+27%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$27.67
(+16%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$16.33
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:13 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:13 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASIC showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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