ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$46.15
0.32 (0.70%)
▲
5d:
+0.11%
30d:
-0.92%
90d:
-12.13%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
6d
Smart Money Accumulation
Options open interest is building while the stock consolidates - a pattern consistent with institutional accumulation. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $46.22 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 6.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: ASO shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$75.54
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$46.91
1.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $46.15, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.79 to $49.29. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 7.1) compared to its historical average (8.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.05 (+30.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $45.07. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 46/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.05 (+30.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$46.79 -
$49.29
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ASO? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (46/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 30.1% below Wall St target ($60.05)
- WARNING: Composite score 48/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.79 -
$49.29
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.07
Resistance Level
$50.71
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.08
Wall Street Target
$60.05
(+30.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.1 vs 8.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$44.07
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$42.09
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$40.20
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$46.00
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$178.14
(+286%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.1, Growth: 10.9%)
$62.89
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.0, Growth: 10.9%)
$53.46
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.10 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.66
Bull Case
$58.07
(+26%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 8.9
Base Case
$52.79
(+14%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 8.1
Bear Case
$31.16
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.1 to 8.1
Stabilization Target:
$52.81
(+14.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 8:43 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:43 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey C Tweedy
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-16
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Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
