ASO Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ASO - Academy Sports and Outdoors, Inc.
$48.56
1.11 (2.34%)
▲
5d:
-2.69%
30d:
+1.51%
90d:
-9.79%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 01, 2026
27d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.5/10
Get Alerted When ASO Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: ASO shows strong fundamentals and good volume confirmation. Solid entry point despite slightly high pricing.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$76.48
Based on 7.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$47.49
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ASO is currently trading at $48.56, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $46.17 to $48.88. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 7.5) is in line with its historical norms (8.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 17.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.94, while resistance sits at $51.88.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.05 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ASO is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $45.94, while resistance sits at $51.88.
Market Sentiment: ASO has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. In the options market, Implied Volatility is low (0th percentile), suggesting options premiums are relatively cheap. This makes it an attractive time for long options strategies if you have a directional bias. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $60.05 (+23.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$46.17 -
$48.88
Company Quality Score
48/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.8%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Options cheap (IV 0th percentile)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.7% below Wall St target ($60.05)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$46.17 -
$48.88
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$2.68
(5.5%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$45.94
Resistance Level
$51.89
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.45
Wall Street Target
$60.05
(+23.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
6.7%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
17.6%
Profit Margin
6.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
7.5 vs 8.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.05
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$45.60
(-6%)
3-Year Target
$44.18
(-9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 7→8)
$48.64
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 10.9%)
$184.18
(+279%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 7.4, Growth: 10.9%)
$66.17
(+36%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.3, Growth: 10.9%)
$56.25
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (8x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (7x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.38 | Current EPS (TTM): $5.66
Bull Case
$60.12
(+24%)
Analyst growth 15.2%, PE expands to 9.2
Base Case
$54.66
(+13%)
Market implied 15.2%, PE stable at 8.4
Bear Case
$32.27
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 7.4 to 8.2
Stabilization Target:
$53.46
(+10.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+10.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 04, 2026 2:31 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:31 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is ASO showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Jeffrey C Tweedy
SELL
4000 shares
2026-04-16
Top Rated Specialty Retail Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Specialty Retail by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
TSCO
Tractor Supply Company |
BUY
30 analysts |
$36 | 60 HOLD |
|
FIVE
Five Below Inc |
BUY
25 analysts |
$260 | 57 HOLD |
|
ULTA
Ulta Beauty Inc |
HOLD
28 analysts |
$623 | 57 HOLD |
|
DKS
Dick’s Sporting Goods Inc |
BUY
26 analysts |
$250 | 56 HOLD |
|
BBY
Best Buy Co. Inc |
HOLD
29 analysts |
$80 | 56 HOLD |
Advanced ASO Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's ASO price and gamma walls.
