AU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AU - AngloGold Ashanti plc
$83.84
-2.39 (-2.77%)
▼
5d:
-9.16%
30d:
-8.72%
90d:
-2.06%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 07, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AU shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$161.85
Based on 7.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$100.49
16.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 10.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AU is currently trading at $83.84, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $85.67 to $95.77. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (10.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 8.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 185.2% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.13, while resistance sits at $97.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.29 (+40.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AU is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $77.13, while resistance sits at $97.19.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $121.29 (+40.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$85.67 -
$95.77
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.7% below Wall St target ($121.29)
- CAUTION: Recommendation downgraded due to -9.2% 5-day decline
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$85.67 -
$95.77
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$77.13
Resistance Level
$97.19
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.25
Wall Street Target
$121.29
(+40.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
64.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
185.2%
Profit Margin
31.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-8.2% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 10.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-8.2%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$79.16
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$72.67
(-16%)
3-Year Target
$66.71
(-23%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$86.53
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 11.4%)
$314.87
(+265%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: 11.4%)
$119.25
(+38%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: 11.4%)
$101.36
(+18%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 13.34 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.81
Bull Case
$153.44
(+78%)
Analyst growth 53.5%, PE expands to 14.7
Base Case
$139.49
(+62%)
Market implied 53.5%, PE stable at 13.3
Bear Case
$61.79
(-28%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 10.7
Stabilization Target:
$111.86
(+29.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+29.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 10:14 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:14 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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