AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$16.03
0.25 (1.58%)
▲
5d:
+3.49%
30d:
+2.36%
90d:
+1.71%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
15d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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2 traders called AUPH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AUPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: AUPH shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.3% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$29.56
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.36
12.7% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $16.03, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.60 to $17.17. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 14.3) compared to its historical average (16.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.19, while resistance sits at $17.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $15.19, while resistance sits at $17.47.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.60 -
$17.17
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
67.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.60 -
$17.17
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.19
Resistance Level
$17.47
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
14.34
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+6.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.3%
Profit Margin
100.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
14.3 vs 16.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.34
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$14.68
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$14.05
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 14→16)
$15.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.5%)
$38.46
(+140%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 14.3, Growth: 16.5%)
$25.32
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 12.2, Growth: 16.5%)
$21.52
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$8.98
(-44%)
Analyst growth -48.2%, PE expands to 8.0
Base Case
$8.17
(-49%)
Market implied -48.2%, PE stable at 7.3
Bear Case
$10.73
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 14.3 to 16.3
Stabilization Target:
$18.22
(+13.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 7:06 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:06 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
