AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$16.65
-0.62 (-3.59%)
▼
5d:
+7.63%
30d:
+9.25%
90d:
+7.77%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 18, 2026 at $15.32 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026
Strength: 7.5/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: AUPH shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$25.61
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$15.90
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $16.65, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $14.98 to $16.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 15.6) is in line with its historical norms (16.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 75.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.90, while resistance sits at $17.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AUPH scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $14.90, while resistance sits at $17.80. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: AUPH scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$14.98 -
$16.11
Company Quality Score
40/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
19.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AUPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.6%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($18.17)
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$14.98 -
$16.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.90
Resistance Level
$17.80
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
15.61
Wall Street Target
$18.17
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
18.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
75.5%
Profit Margin
100.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
15.6 vs 16.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$16.52
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$16.38
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$16.25
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 16→16)
$16.66
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.0%)
$30.89
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 15.6, Growth: 13.0%)
$24.02
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 13.3, Growth: 13.0%)
$20.42
(+23%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 7.57 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.28
Bull Case
$9.50
(-43%)
Analyst growth -50.0%, PE expands to 8.3
Base Case
$8.64
(-48%)
Market implied -50.0%, PE stable at 7.6
Bear Case
$11.74
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 6.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 15.6 to 16.0
Stabilization Target:
$17.07
(+2.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 12:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
