AUPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
AUPH - Aurinia Pharmaceuticals Inc
$14.57
-0.31 (-2.08%)
▼
5d:
-4.27%
30d:
-6.66%
90d:
-5.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
0d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.4/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: AUPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: AUPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$28.91
Based on 10.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$17.95
18.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: AUPH is currently trading at $14.57, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.08 to $16.54. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 13.2) compared to its historical average (16.1). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 6.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 56.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AUPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, AUPH is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.36. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: AUPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $17.00 (+16.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.08 -
$16.54
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding AUPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($17.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.08 -
$16.54
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.36
Resistance Level
$15.77
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.17
Wall Street Target
$17.00
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
24.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
56.3%
Profit Margin
100.0%
Valuation Discount vs History
-6.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
13.2 vs 16.1
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-6.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.62
(-7%)
2-Year Target
$12.74
(-13%)
3-Year Target
$11.91
(-18%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→16)
$14.56
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 16.5%)
$36.27
(+149%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.2, Growth: 16.5%)
$23.03
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.2, Growth: 16.5%)
$19.58
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 6.89 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.16
Bull Case
$8.39
(-42%)
Analyst growth -48.8%, PE expands to 7.6
Base Case
$7.62
(-48%)
Market implied -48.8%, PE stable at 6.9
Bear Case
$10.12
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 5.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 13.2 to 16.1
Stabilization Target:
$17.82
(+22.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+22.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 10:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is AUPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
0
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Kevin Tang
BUY
516439 shares
2026-02-27
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Advanced AUPH Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's AUPH price and gamma walls.
