What is the fair value of AXP stock?

Our analysis estimates the fair value range for AXP to be between $334.79 and $351.62. The current price is $336.00.

What is the analyst price target for AXP?

The average Wall Street analyst price target for AXP is $375.96. This implies a potential upside of 11.9% from current levels.

AXP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?

AXP - American Express Company

FINANCE SERVICES

$336.00

4.85 (1.46%) ▲

5d: -1.89%

30d: -1.42%

90d: +8.49%

WAIT

LOW Confidence

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Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET

Earnings: Oct 23, 2026

Smart Money Distribution

Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →

Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $340.91 · last confirmed Aug 21, 2026

Strength: 4.1/10

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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)

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💡

Bottom Line:
ℹ️ NEUTRAL: AXP is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.2% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.

See Forward Earnings Fair Value & Price Prediction →

Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)

Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation

Adjust Growth Assumption: 13.8%

0% (Stagnation) 50% (Hyper Growth)

EST. PRICE IN 2031

$531.45

Based on 8.9% avg growth

INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY

$329.99

Trading above historical range

How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.

View Full DCF Model

In-depth Analysis How we analyze

Valuation Analysis: AXP is currently trading at $336.00, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $334.79 to $351.62. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.2% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 11.0% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.

Technical Outlook: Technically, AXP is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $331.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.

Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 52/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $375.96 (+11.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.

Quick Decision Summary

Current Position SLIGHTLY LOW

Historical Trading Range $334.79 - $351.62

Company Quality Score 44/100 (HOLD)

Volume Confirmation HIGH

Confidence Score 77.1%

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All Signals

BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (52/100)
BULLISH: High volume confirmation
BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($375.96)
WARNING: Composite score 44/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market

Trading Range Analysis

30-Day Trading Range $334.79 - $351.62

Current vs Trading Range SLIGHTLY LOW

Support & Resistance Levels

Support Level $331.15

Resistance Level $347.11

Current Trend Strong Uptrend

Technical data as of Aug 21, 2026

Fundamental Context

Forward P/E (Next Year Est.) 16.71

Wall Street Target $375.96 (+11.9%)

Revenue Growth (YoY) 12.8%

Earnings Growth (YoY) 11.0%

Profit Margin 16.1%

Valuation Discount vs History -1.2% cheaper

PE vs Historical 16.7 vs 17.3 FAIR

Market-Implied Price Targets If current PE multiple persists

Implied Growth (YoY): -1.2% (market-implied from PE analysis)

1-Year Target $331.97 (-1%)

2-Year Target $327.98 (-2%)

3-Year Target $324.05 (-4%)

3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes) (PE: 17→17) $335.50 (0%)

3-Year Scenarios Using analyst projected EPS growth

Bull: (PE: 20.1, Growth: 13.8%) $594.57 (+77%)

Base: (SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 13.8%) $495.01 (+47%)

Bear: (PE: 14.2, Growth: 13.8%) $420.76 (+25%)

📈 Valuation based on Current Earnings

RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (21x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (17x PE) as earnings recover.

Trailing PE: 20.62 | Current EPS (TTM): $16.06

Bull Case $456.09 (+36%)

Analyst growth 25.2%, PE expands to 22.7

Base Case $414.63 (+23%)

Market implied 25.2%, PE stable at 20.6

Bear Case $225.18 (-33%)

Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 17.5

These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.

💡 Upside Surprise Potential

If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 17.3

Stabilization Target: $347.88 (+3.5%)

PE Expansion Potential: +3.5%

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Last updated: August 23, 2026 6:32 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:32 AM

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Technical Signals Check

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Insider Activity (6 Months)

Buys

Sells

Net

NEUTRAL

Recent Transactions

Rick Larsen SELL 2026-04-07

Ro Khanna BUY 2026-03-30

Shelley Moore Capito BUY 2026-03-11

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