BJRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BJRI - BJ's Restaurants, Inc.
$59.86
3.53 (6.27%)
▲
5d:
+9.73%
30d:
+29.4%
90d:
+62.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 26, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: BJRI is 12.0% above its trading range ($53.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: BJRI is 12.0% above its trading range ($53.46). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$70.83
Based on 10.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.98
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BJRI is currently trading at $59.86, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.75 to $53.46. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 22.9) compared to its historical average (16.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 12.0% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: BJRI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $44.44. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BJRI is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $60.77. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: BJRI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. However, the stock is trading significantly above the average Wall Street target of $44.44. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$43.75 -
$53.46
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.0% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.3%)
- BEARISH: Trading 25.8% above Wall St target ($44.44)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 12.0% growth with 2.9% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.75 -
$53.46
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$50.72
Resistance Level
$60.77
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 26, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
22.94
Wall Street Target
$44.44
(-25.8%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-29.3%
Profit Margin
3.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+12.0% premium
PE vs Historical
22.9 vs 16.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+12.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$67.04
(+12%)
2-Year Target
$75.09
(+25%)
3-Year Target
$84.10
(+41%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 23→16)
PE COMPRESSION
$59.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 22.9, Growth: 17.7%)
$97.72
(+63%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.8, Growth: 17.7%)
$92.76
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.3, Growth: 17.7%)
$69.42
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (28x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (23x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 28.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.99
Bull Case
$81.23
(+36%)
Analyst growth 31.1%, PE expands to 31.1
Base Case
$73.85
(+23%)
Market implied 31.1%, PE stable at 28.3
Bear Case
$38.30
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 24.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 27, 2026 6:38 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:38 PM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
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Technical Signals Check
Is BJRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS BUYING
Recent Transactions
Brian S Krakower
SELL
2600 shares
2026-03-17
C Bradford Richmond
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-12
C Bradford Richmond
BUY
1000 shares
2026-03-06
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