BLKB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
BLKB - Blackbaud, Inc.
$26.97
0.43 (1.62%)
▲
5d:
-2.32%
30d:
-8.95%
90d:
-38.03%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLKB appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.0% annual earnings decline despite 651% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: BLKB appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -18.0% annual earnings decline despite 651% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$72.89
Based on 8.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$45.26
40.4% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 8.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: BLKB is currently trading at $26.97, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.76 to $31.62. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.6) compared to its historical average (8.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 18.0% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 650.6% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLKB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.58, while resistance sits at $28.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.00 (+89.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, BLKB is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $25.58, while resistance sits at $28.82.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $51.00 (+89.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.76 -
$31.62
Company Quality Score
53/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 89.1% below Wall St target ($51.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.76 -
$31.62
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.58
Resistance Level
$28.82
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.60
Wall Street Target
$51.00
(+89.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
650.6%
Profit Margin
12.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-18.0% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.6 vs 8.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-18.0%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$24.27
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$21.85
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$19.66
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→8)
$35.49
(+32%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.9%)
$184.04
(+582%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.6, Growth: 12.9%)
$38.85
(+44%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.9, Growth: 12.9%)
$33.02
(+22%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.17 | Current EPS (TTM): $2.95
Bull Case
$59.15
(+123%)
Analyst growth 98.8%, PE expands to 10.1
Base Case
$53.77
(+103%)
Market implied 98.8%, PE stable at 9.2
Bear Case
$18.39
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.6 to 8.3
Stabilization Target:
$48.69
(+80.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+80.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 5:46 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:46 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is BLKB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Kevin P Gregoire
SELL
2000 shares
2026-03-04
David J Benjamin
SELL
14349 shares
2026-02-24
Kevin Mcdearis
SELL
15462 shares
2026-02-23
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