CF Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CF - CF Industries Holding, Inc.
$125.19
-0.58 (-0.46%)
▼
5d:
+0.1%
30d:
+15.75%
90d:
+0.8%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 05, 2026
1d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 6.7/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CF shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.95
Based on -17.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CF is currently trading at $125.19, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $108.26 to $124.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.1) is in line with its historical norms (12.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 115.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $119.14, while resistance sits at $130.05.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CF is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $119.14, while resistance sits at $130.05.
Market Sentiment: CF has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$108.26 -
$124.37
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CF? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($125.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$108.26 -
$124.37
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$119.14
Resistance Level
$130.05
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.11
Wall Street Target
$125.25
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
115.1%
Profit Margin
23.7%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.1 vs 12.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$124.81
(0%)
2-Year Target
$124.44
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$124.07
(-1%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
$124.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: -38.5%)
$156.20
(+25%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.1, Growth: -38.5%)
$91.26
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.3, Growth: -38.5%)
$77.57
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 11.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $11.10
Bull Case
$128.82
(+3%)
Analyst growth -6.9%, PE expands to 12.5
Base Case
$117.11
(-7%)
Market implied -6.9%, PE stable at 11.3
Bear Case
$85.52
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.1 to 12.2
Stabilization Target:
$126.10
(+0.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+0.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 3:35 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:35 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CF showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
15
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Erik M Mayer
SELL
1500 shares
2026-03-17
Richard A Hoker
SELL
3499 shares
2026-03-17
Bert A Frost
SELL
6000 shares
2026-03-17
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