The Mosaic (MOS) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
MOS - The Mosaic Company
$18.74
-0.99 (-5.02%)
▼
5d:
-11.06%
30d:
-26.22%
90d:
-16.0%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 03, 2026
22d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MOS is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
⏸️ WAIT FOR STABILIZATION: MOS is down 11.1% over the last 5 days. While fundamentals may be solid, catching a falling knife is risky. Wait for price to stabilize before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.53
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.06
15.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: MOS is currently trading at $18.74, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.46 to $25.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.9) is in line with its historical norms (11.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MOS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.66 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, MOS is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $18.68. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.0% recently.
Market Sentiment: MOS scores 35/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $26.66 (+42.3%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$21.46 -
$25.71
Company Quality Score
45/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
53.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding MOS? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (35/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.0%)
- BULLISH: Trading 42.3% below Wall St target ($26.66)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 45/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.46 -
$25.71
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$18.68
Resistance Level
$22.85
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.91
Wall Street Target
$26.66
(+42.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-6.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
239.5%
Profit Margin
-5.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
11.9 vs 11.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$18.91
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$19.08
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$19.25
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$18.74
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 291.0%)
$105.43
(+463%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.9, Growth: 291.0%)
$63.25
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 291.0%)
$53.76
(+187%)
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 11, 2026 5:20 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:20 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is MOS showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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