CGAU Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CGAU - Centerra Gold Inc.
$16.02
0.15 (0.95%)
▲
5d:
-1.05%
30d:
+2.56%
90d:
-18.1%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
12d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGAU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: CGAU shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.1% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$26.62
Based on 8.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$16.53
3.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CGAU is currently trading at $16.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.45 to $16.72. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.0) compared to its historical average (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 190.3% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.14, while resistance sits at $17.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.25 (+45.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CGAU is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $15.14, while resistance sits at $17.13.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.25 (+45.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.45 -
$16.72
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 45.1% below Wall St target ($23.25)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.45 -
$16.72
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$15.15
Resistance Level
$17.13
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 14, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
7.96
Wall Street Target
$23.25
(+45.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
61.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
190.3%
Profit Margin
40.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.0 vs 9.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.36
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$14.73
(-8%)
3-Year Target
$14.13
(-12%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→9)
$15.97
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$61.70
(+285%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.0, Growth: 12.1%)
$22.56
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 6.8, Growth: 12.1%)
$19.17
(+20%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 5.12 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.10
Bull Case
$11.33
(-29%)
Analyst growth -35.1%, PE expands to 5.6
Base Case
$10.30
(-36%)
Market implied -35.1%, PE stable at 5.1
Bear Case
$10.79
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 4.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.0 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$18.11
(+13.0%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+13.0%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CGAU showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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