CHA Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHA - Chagee Holdings Limited American Depositary Shares
$10.81
0.19 (1.79%)
â˛
5d:
+5.26%
30d:
-3.65%
90d:
+8.43%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Sep 04, 2026
11d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CHA is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 4.4% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.23
Based on 6.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.21
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 0.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHA is currently trading at $10.81, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $10.35 to $11.50. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.0) compared to its historical average (0.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.61 (+35.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHA is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $10.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 53/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $14.61 (+35.1%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$10.35 -
$11.50
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
82.9%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (53/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 35.1% below Wall St target ($14.61)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 4.4% growth with 4.5% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 43/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$10.35 -
$11.50
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$9.84
Resistance Level
$10.88
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.00
Wall Street Target
$14.61
(+35.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
4.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-40.3%
Profit Margin
7.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
1.0 vs 0.9
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$11.29
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$11.78
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$12.30
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1â1)
PE COMPRESSION
$11.02
(+2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 8.9%)
$278.61
(+2477%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.0, Growth: 8.9%)
$13.95
(+29%)
Bear:
(PE: 0.9, Growth: 8.9%)
$11.85
(+10%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (14x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 14.16 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.75
Bull Case
$23.36
(+116%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 15.6
Base Case
$21.24
(+97%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 14.2
Bear Case
$7.22
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 1:49 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 2:49 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHA showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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