CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.26
0.01 (0.44%)
▲
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-2.16%
90d:
-15.36%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
3d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CHMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CHMI shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.71
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.93
22.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.4x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.26, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.25 to $2.37. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 4.1) is in line with its historical norms (4.4). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+32.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $2.22. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CHMI has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+32.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$2.25 -
$2.37
Company Quality Score
43/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 32.7% below Wall St target ($3.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.25 -
$2.37
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.22
Resistance Level
$2.37
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.11
Wall Street Target
$3.00
(+32.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.1 vs 4.4
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.21
(-2%)
2-Year Target
$2.17
(-4%)
3-Year Target
$2.12
(-6%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→4)
$2.27
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 91.7%)
$11.72
(+419%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.1, Growth: 91.7%)
$2.32
(+3%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.5, Growth: 91.7%)
$1.97
(-13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.00 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.15
Bull Case
$4.95
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.5
Base Case
$4.50
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.0
Bear Case
$1.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 12.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.1 to 4.4
Stabilization Target:
$2.42
(+7.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+7.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 4:35 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:35 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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