CHMI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CHMI - CHERRY HILL MORTGAGE INVESTMENT CORPORATION
$2.38
-0.02 (-0.83%)
▼
5d:
+0.0%
30d:
-2.46%
90d:
-14.39%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CHMI trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -3.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$3.39
Based on 4.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.10
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CHMI is currently trading at $2.38, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $2.35 to $2.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.0) compared to its historical average (4.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $2.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CHMI is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $2.43. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CHMI has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $3.00 (+25.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$2.35 -
$2.44
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
83.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 25.0% below Wall St target ($3.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$2.35 -
$2.44
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$2.28
Resistance Level
$2.43
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.00
Wall Street Target
$3.00
(+25.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-34.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-49.5%
Profit Margin
35.2%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.0 vs 4.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$2.31
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$2.23
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$2.15
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$2.42
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 5.3%)
$15.24
(+535%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.0, Growth: 5.3%)
$2.80
(+17%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.4, Growth: 5.3%)
$2.38
(-1%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (15x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 15.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.15
Bull Case
$5.04
(+110%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 16.8
Base Case
$4.58
(+91%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 15.3
Bear Case
$1.56
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.0 to 4.5
Stabilization Target:
$2.70
(+12.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+12.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 10:29 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:29 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CHMI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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