CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$36.90
1.61 (4.56%)
▲
5d:
+10.15%
30d:
+15.28%
90d:
+12.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 17, 2026 at $33.65 · last confirmed Aug 18, 2026
Strength: 6.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: CMG shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$58.78
Based on 11.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.50
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $36.90, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.38 to $35.92. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 26.9) is in line with its historical norms (26.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.80 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $36.90. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 4.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $43.80 (+18.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.38 -
$35.92
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
34.3%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+4.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($43.80)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 9.3% revenue growth
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.38 -
$35.92
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.64
Resistance Level
$36.90
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
26.95
Wall Street Target
$43.80
(+18.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-1.3%
Profit Margin
11.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
27.0 vs 26.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.20
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$37.49
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$37.79
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→26)
PE COMPRESSION
$36.88
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.0, Growth: 19.1%)
$62.39
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.1, Growth: 19.1%)
$46.46
(+26%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.1, Growth: 19.1%)
$39.49
(+7%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (33x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 32.68 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$49.21
(+33%)
Analyst growth 26.8%, PE expands to 35.9
Base Case
$44.74
(+21%)
Market implied 26.8%, PE stable at 32.7
Bear Case
$24.00
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 27.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 22, 2026 12:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
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Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
