CMG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CMG - Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.
$37.22
-1.30 (-3.37%)
▼
5d:
+17.08%
30d:
+6.34%
90d:
+9.5%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 29, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
Get Alerted When CMG Hits Your Target Price
Join 10,000+ traders who never miss a move
You're in! Check your email to confirm and set your target price.
100% Free
No spam, ever
Unsubscribe anytime
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
Loading chart...
Loading historical data...
Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CMG shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$59.41
Based on 11.8% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$36.89
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 25.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CMG is currently trading at $37.22, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.10 to $35.71. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 27.2) is in line with its historical norms (26.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.47, while resistance sits at $39.09. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.05 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CMG is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $31.47, while resistance sits at $39.09. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.4% recently.
Market Sentiment: CMG has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $44.05 (+18.3%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.10 -
$35.71
Company Quality Score
50/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
58.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CMG? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.4%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($44.05)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.9% growth with 7.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.10 -
$35.71
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$31.47
Resistance Level
$39.09
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 31, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
27.19
Wall Street Target
$44.05
(+18.3%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-17.9%
Profit Margin
12.0%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.9% premium
PE vs Historical
27.2 vs 26.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.55
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$37.89
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$38.23
(+3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 27→27)
PE COMPRESSION
$37.26
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 27.2, Growth: 19.6%)
$63.75
(+71%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.7, Growth: 19.6%)
$48.61
(+31%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.6, Growth: 19.6%)
$41.32
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (36x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (27x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 35.67 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.08
Bull Case
$53.71
(+44%)
Analyst growth 26.7%, PE expands to 39.2
Base Case
$48.82
(+31%)
Market implied 26.7%, PE stable at 35.7
Bear Case
$26.19
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 30.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 02, 2026 7:52 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:52 AM
🔥 Top Stocks Breaking Out Now
| Ticker | Score | Recommendation | Change % |
|---|
Technical Signals Check
Is CMG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-23
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-03-10
Top Rated Restaurants Stocks
Top-rated stocks in Restaurants by analyst ratings.
| Stock | Analyst Consensus | Analyst Target | Tradestie Score |
|---|---|---|---|
|
WING
Wingstop Inc |
STRONG BUY
30 analysts |
$229 | 45 HOLD |
|
BROS
Dutch Bros Inc |
STRONG BUY
24 analysts |
$80 | 54 HOLD |
|
QSR
Restaurant Brands Intern… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$85 | 48 HOLD |
|
DPZ
Domino's Pizza Inc Commo… |
BUY
31 analysts |
$387 | 48 HOLD |
|
YUMC
Yum China Holdings Inc |
STRONG BUY
23 analysts |
$61 | 50 HOLD |
Advanced CMG Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CMG price and gamma walls.
