CNQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$40.98
-0.81 (-1.94%)
▼
5d:
-6.88%
30d:
-15.83%
90d:
-15.3%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 9.0/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: CNQ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: CNQ shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.80
Based on -5.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNQ is currently trading at $40.98, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $43.45 to $48.20. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.2) compared to its historical average (11.7). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 11.1% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $40.80. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$43.45 -
$48.20
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CNQ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($45.92)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-6.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$43.45 -
$48.20
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.81
Resistance Level
$46.76
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.21
Wall Street Target
$45.92
(+9.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.3%
Profit Margin
25.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-11.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.2 vs 11.7
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-11.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$37.61
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$33.85
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$30.46
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→12)
$43.41
(+4%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -14.6%)
$80.80
(+93%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.2, Growth: -14.6%)
$30.46
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.0, Growth: -14.6%)
$25.90
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.80 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.48
Bull Case
$66.03
(+58%)
Analyst growth 46.2%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$60.03
(+44%)
Market implied 46.2%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$27.91
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.2 to 11.7
Stabilization Target:
$59.54
(+42.5%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+42.5%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 12:06 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 1:06 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CNQ price and gamma walls.
