CNQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$42.73
0.11 (0.26%)
▲
5d:
+0.71%
30d:
-5.67%
90d:
-6.4%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 15, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
21d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.8/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CNQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: CNQ trading at deep discount. Market pricing in -9.6% annual earnings decline, creating value opportunity for patient investors.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$44.37
Based on -5.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$27.55
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNQ is currently trading at $42.73, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $39.76 to $44.19. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.3) compared to its historical average (11.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $43.87. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: CNQ has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$39.76 -
$44.19
Company Quality Score
62/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($46.63)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$39.76 -
$44.19
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$38.83
Resistance Level
$43.87
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 15, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.33
Wall Street Target
$46.63
(+9.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.3%
Profit Margin
25.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.3 vs 11.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$38.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$34.92
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$31.57
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 8→11)
$42.84
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: -14.0%)
$78.59
(+84%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.3, Growth: -14.0%)
$31.15
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.1, Growth: -14.0%)
$26.48
(-38%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (8x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.81 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.61
Bull Case
$66.64
(+56%)
Analyst growth 42.1%, PE expands to 13.0
Base Case
$60.58
(+42%)
Market implied 42.1%, PE stable at 11.8
Bear Case
$28.98
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.3 to 11.3
Stabilization Target:
$57.98
(+35.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 15, 2026 6:26 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:26 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CNQ price and gamma walls.
