CNQ Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
CNQ - Canadian Natural Resources Limited
$45.51
0.06 (0.13%)
â˛
5d:
-4.55%
30d:
+8.67%
90d:
+1.72%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 7, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
Options positioning is turning defensive after a sharp run-up - a pattern consistent with institutional profit-taking. View Scanner →
Signal fired Aug 7, 2026 at $45.51 · last confirmed Aug 7, 2026
Strength: 7.3/10
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CNQ is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: CNQ is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -7.5% expected growth, valuation appears cheap. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$47.99
Based on -3.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$29.80
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 11.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: CNQ is currently trading at $45.51, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $41.02 to $46.25. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 8.7) compared to its historical average (11.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 7.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CNQ scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, CNQ is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $44.15. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: CNQ scores 36/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$41.02 -
$46.25
Company Quality Score
38/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
38.1%
Protect Your Profits
Holding CNQ? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (36/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($47.96)
- WARNING: Composite score 38/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$41.02 -
$46.25
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$44.15
Resistance Level
$47.82
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Aug 7, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.73
Wall Street Target
$47.96
(+5.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-1.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-45.3%
Profit Margin
25.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-7.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.7 vs 11.0
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-7.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$42.10
(-8%)
2-Year Target
$38.94
(-14%)
3-Year Target
$36.02
(-21%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9â11)
$45.36
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: -10.7%)
$76.84
(+69%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.7, Growth: -10.7%)
$33.18
(-27%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.4, Growth: -10.7%)
$28.20
(-38%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.99 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.79
Bull Case
$68.73
(+51%)
Analyst growth 37.5%, PE expands to 13.2
Base Case
$62.48
(+37%)
Market implied 37.5%, PE stable at 12.0
Bear Case
$30.91
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.7 to 11.0
Stabilization Target:
$57.32
(+25.9%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+25.9%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 10, 2026 5:56 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:56 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is CNQ showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced CNQ Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's CNQ price and gamma walls.
