DLTR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
DLTR - Dollar Tree Inc.
$112.50
3.11 (2.84%)
▲
5d:
+17.35%
30d:
+19.62%
90d:
-4.54%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: May 28, 2026
0d
Smart Money Distribution
None View Scanner →
Strength: 7.9/10
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1 traders called DLTR this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: DLTR is 7.1% above its trading range ($105.06). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
📊 HOLD - EXTENDED: DLTR is 7.1% above its trading range ($105.06). Fundamentals are solid but entry is stretched. Hold existing positions; wait for pullback to add new shares.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$191.90
Based on 10.7% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$119.16
5.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: DLTR is currently trading at $112.50, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $89.21 to $105.06. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 16.7) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 9.5% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $88.25, while resistance sits at $116.88.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.26 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, DLTR is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $88.25, while resistance sits at $116.88.
Market Sentiment: DLTR has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $124.26 (+10.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$89.21 -
$105.06
Company Quality Score
60/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
54.8%
Protect Your Profits
Holding DLTR? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range (+7.1% above its trading range)
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($124.26)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$89.21 -
$105.06
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$88.26
Resistance Level
$116.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
16.69
Wall Street Target
$124.26
(+10.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
7.2%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
9.5%
Profit Margin
6.5%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
16.7 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$111.26
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$110.04
(-2%)
3-Year Target
$108.83
(-3%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 17→17)
$112.18
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 17.4%)
$238.84
(+112%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 16.7, Growth: 17.4%)
$181.90
(+62%)
Bear:
(PE: 14.2, Growth: 17.4%)
$154.61
(+37%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 15.77 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.08
Bull Case
$116.94
(+4%)
Analyst growth 10.9%, PE expands to 17.3
Base Case
$106.31
(-6%)
Market implied 10.9%, PE stable at 15.8
Bear Case
$65.19
(-42%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 13.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 16.7 to 17.2
Stabilization Target:
$115.97
(+3.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+3.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 8:40 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:40 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is DLTR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
4
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Gilbert Ray Cisneros, Jr.
SELL
2026-01-28
Michael T. McCaul
SELL
2026-01-13
Robert Aflatooni
SELL
175 shares
2026-01-07
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