ENPH Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ENPH - Enphase Energy, Inc.
$43.06
-1.77 (-3.95%)
▼
5d:
-3.34%
30d:
-14.85%
90d:
+38.08%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 28, 2026
14d
Smart Money Accumulation
None View Scanner →
Strength: 8.0/10
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2 traders called ENPH this week
100% bullish • 0 bearish
100% bullish • 0 bearish
Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: ENPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: ENPH shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$67.60
Based on 10.4% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.97
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ENPH is currently trading at $43.06, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $44.01 to $55.24. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 18.6) is in line with its historical norms (17.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.7% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ENPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.93, while resistance sits at $54.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ENPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ENPH is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $40.93, while resistance sits at $54.10. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.9% recently.
Market Sentiment: ENPH has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$44.01 -
$55.24
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
51.0%
Protect Your Profits
Holding ENPH? Use our AI-powered strategies to protect your downside while keeping your long-term position.
View Profit Protection PlanAll Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.9%)
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.43)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.7% growth with -20.6% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$44.01 -
$55.24
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$40.93
Resistance Level
$54.10
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jul 13, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
18.59
Wall Street Target
$48.43
(+8.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-20.6%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-36.4%
Profit Margin
9.6%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.7% premium
PE vs Historical
18.6 vs 17.2
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.7%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$46.04
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$47.28
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$48.56
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 19→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$44.94
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$83.40
(+86%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 18.6, Growth: 16.7%)
$71.17
(+59%)
Bear:
(PE: 15.8, Growth: 16.7%)
$60.50
(+35%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (43x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (19x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 42.75 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.05
Bull Case
$98.76
(+120%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 47.0
Base Case
$89.78
(+100%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 42.8
Bear Case
$30.53
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 36.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 4:21 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:21 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ENPH showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
1
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Thurman J Rodgers
SELL
137250 shares
2026-03-13
Richard Mora
SELL
1100 shares
2026-02-10
Badrinarayanan Kothandar…
BUY
5000 shares
2026-02-05
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