GFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$47.33
-0.48 (-1.00%)
▼
5d:
+14.05%
30d:
+44.74%
90d:
+19.73%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: GFI is 12.0% above its trading range ($42.27). Market expects -0.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
⏸️ WAIT FOR BETTER ENTRY: GFI is 12.0% above its trading range ($42.27). Market expects -0.5% annual growth, but current price leaves little margin for error. While momentum could continue, risk/reward favors waiting for a pullback.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$66.47
Based on 6.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$41.27
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.0x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $47.33, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.17 to $42.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 8.8) is in line with its historical norms (9.0). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 0.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 196.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $48.38. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GFI scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$32.17 -
$42.27
Company Quality Score
34/100
(SELL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
14.3%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price significantly overextended (+12.0% above its trading range)
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($48.34)
- WARNING: Composite score 34/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.17 -
$42.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$39.21
Resistance Level
$48.38
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 24, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
8.82
Wall Street Target
$48.34
(+2.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
196.1%
Profit Margin
40.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-0.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
8.8 vs 9.0
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-0.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$47.09
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$46.86
(-1%)
3-Year Target
$46.62
(-2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 9→9)
$47.60
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 9.2%)
$140.24
(+196%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 8.8, Growth: 9.2%)
$61.66
(+30%)
Bear:
(PE: 7.5, Growth: 9.2%)
$52.41
(+11%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (12x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (9x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.13 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$71.67
(+51%)
Analyst growth 36.3%, PE expands to 13.4
Base Case
$65.15
(+38%)
Market implied 36.3%, PE stable at 12.1
Bear Case
$32.51
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 10.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 8.8 to 9.0
Stabilization Target:
$48.32
(+2.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+2.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 24, 2026 6:42 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:42 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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