GFI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GFI - Gold Fields Ltd ADR
$33.33
-0.20 (-0.60%)
▼
5d:
-0.77%
30d:
-7.16%
90d:
-31.92%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 21, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.4% annual earnings decline despite 196% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: GFI appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -14.4% annual earnings decline despite 196% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$69.78
Based on 5.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$43.33
23.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 9.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GFI is currently trading at $33.33, which is considered slightly low relative to its 30-day fair value range of $32.84 to $37.10. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.9) compared to its historical average (9.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 14.4% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 196.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.16 (+62.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GFI is in a strong downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $34.37. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $54.16 (+62.5%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY LOW
Historical Trading Range
$32.84 -
$37.10
Company Quality Score
49/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 62.5% below Wall St target ($54.16)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$32.84 -
$37.10
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY LOW
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$34.37
Resistance Level
$40.87
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.93
Wall Street Target
$54.16
(+62.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
71.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
196.1%
Profit Margin
40.8%
Valuation Discount vs History
-14.4% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.9 vs 9.5
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-14.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$30.00
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$27.00
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$24.30
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 6→10)
$38.93
(+17%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 7.0%)
$149.86
(+350%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.9, Growth: 7.0%)
$40.80
(+22%)
Bear:
(PE: 5.0, Growth: 7.0%)
$34.68
(+4%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (6x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 8.66 | Current EPS (TTM): $3.94
Bull Case
$53.58
(+61%)
Analyst growth 42.7%, PE expands to 9.5
Base Case
$48.71
(+46%)
Market implied 42.7%, PE stable at 8.7
Bear Case
$23.22
(-30%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.9 to 9.5
Stabilization Target:
$53.40
(+60.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+60.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 11:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:19 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:19 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GFI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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