GGB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$4.83
0.14 (2.99%)
â˛
5d:
-6.03%
30d:
+4.77%
90d:
+0.84%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 04, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GGB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GGB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 1.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.47
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $4.83, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.51 to $5.00. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.67, while resistance sits at $5.18.
Market Sentiment: GGB scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.50 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.67, while resistance sits at $5.18.
Market Sentiment: GGB scores 37/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.50 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$4.51 -
$5.00
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
48.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (37/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.50)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 1.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.51 -
$5.00
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.67
Resistance Level
$5.18
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.61
Wall Street Target
$5.50
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
73.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+1.6% premium
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+1.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.91
(+2%)
2-Year Target
$4.99
(+3%)
3-Year Target
$5.07
(+5%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2â2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.72
(-2%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.2, Growth: 11.1%)
$83.36
(+1626%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 11.1%)
$6.63
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 11.1%)
$5.63
(+17%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.33 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.21
Bull Case
$10.32
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.6
Base Case
$9.38
(+94%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.3
Bear Case
$3.19
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 13, 2026 5:23 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:23 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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12419 shares
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