GGB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$4.68
-0.04 (-0.85%)
▼
5d:
+4.23%
30d:
+4.23%
90d:
+8.84%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 20, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GGB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: GGB shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% annual growth which appears achievable. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$6.47
Based on 7.6% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$4.02
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $4.68, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.14 to $4.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.6) is in line with its historical norms (1.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.20, while resistance sits at $4.83.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.58 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a strong uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.20, while resistance sits at $4.83.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.58 (+19.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.14 -
$4.65
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.58)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.14 -
$4.65
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.20
Resistance Level
$4.83
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 20, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.56
Wall Street Target
$5.58
(+19.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.9%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
1.6 vs 1.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.72
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$4.76
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$4.79
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.61
(-1%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.9, Growth: 11.1%)
$86.33
(+1745%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.6, Growth: 11.1%)
$6.42
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.3, Growth: 11.1%)
$5.46
(+17%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (30x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 29.50 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.16
Bull Case
$10.38
(+122%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 32.5
Base Case
$9.44
(+102%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 29.5
Bear Case
$3.21
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 25.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 21, 2026 4:03 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:03 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
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25000 shares
2026-04-10
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SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-10
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SELL
12419 shares
2026-04-09
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