GGB Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$4.09
-0.08 (-1.92%)
▼
5d:
-11.47%
30d:
-13.89%
90d:
+18.9%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GGB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GGB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$4.55
Based on 1.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$2.82
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $4.09, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.38 to $4.77. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.4) is in line with its historical norms (1.5). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 37.9% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.26 (+28.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $4.42. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: GGB has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.26 (+28.5%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.38 -
$4.77
Company Quality Score
51/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
57.1%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 28.5% below Wall St target ($5.26)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-11.5%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.38 -
$4.77
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.42
Resistance Level
$4.92
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.42
Wall Street Target
$5.26
(+28.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
37.9%
Profit Margin
2.4%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.99
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$3.89
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$3.79
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$3.99
(-2%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: -1.8%)
$59.33
(+1351%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: -1.8%)
$3.88
(-5%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: -1.8%)
$3.30
(-19%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (26x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 25.69 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.16
Bull Case
$9.04
(+121%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 28.3
Base Case
$8.22
(+101%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 25.7
Bear Case
$2.79
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 21.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.5
Stabilization Target:
$4.31
(+5.4%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+5.4%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 25, 2026 2:58 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 3:58 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
6
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Chia Yuan Wang
SELL
25000 shares
2026-04-10
Mauricio Metz
SELL
1000 shares
2026-04-10
Marcos Eduardo Fara Wahr…
SELL
12419 shares
2026-04-09
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