Gerdau (GGB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$5.02
0.02 (0.40%)
â˛
5d:
-0.79%
30d:
+15.94%
90d:
+20.38%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 22, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 29, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GGB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: GGB is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At 2.6% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.57
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.46
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $5.02, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.52 to $5.06. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 1.7) compared to its historical average (1.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GGB scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.72 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $5.17. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: GGB scores 39/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.72 (+13.9%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$4.52 -
$5.06
Company Quality Score
46/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
41.4%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (39/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.72)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 2.6% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 46/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.52 -
$5.06
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.86
Resistance Level
$5.17
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 22, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.67
Wall Street Target
$5.72
(+13.9%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
73.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.6% premium
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 1.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.15
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$5.28
(+5%)
3-Year Target
$5.42
(+8%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2â2)
PE COMPRESSION
$4.87
(-3%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 4.6%)
$70.15
(+1297%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 4.6%)
$5.75
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.4, Growth: 4.6%)
$4.89
(-3%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 22.45 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.22
Bull Case
$10.87
(+117%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 24.7
Base Case
$9.88
(+98%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$3.36
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 22, 2026 5:16 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:16 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
5
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
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