Gerdau (GGB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$5.14
0.02 (0.39%)
▲
5d:
-0.58%
30d:
-0.19%
90d:
+11.5%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 12, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
13d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GGB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: GGB shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$5.94
Based on 4.3% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$3.69
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $5.14, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.83 to $5.11. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 1.7) is in line with its historical norms (1.6). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.63, while resistance sits at $5.48.
Market Sentiment: GGB scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.95 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.63, while resistance sits at $5.48.
Market Sentiment: GGB scores 33/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.95 (+15.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$4.83 -
$5.11
Company Quality Score
40/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
27.1%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (33/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($5.95)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.3% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 40/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.83 -
$5.11
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.63
Resistance Level
$5.48
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 12, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.71
Wall Street Target
$5.95
(+15.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
2.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
73.5%
Profit Margin
3.2%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.3% premium
PE vs Historical
1.7 vs 1.6
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$5.31
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$5.48
(+7%)
3-Year Target
$5.67
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 2→2)
PE COMPRESSION
$5.30
(+3%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 4.6%)
$68.43
(+1231%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.7, Growth: 4.6%)
$5.89
(+15%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.5, Growth: 4.6%)
$5.00
(-3%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (2x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.27 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.22
Bull Case
$11.26
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 25.6
Base Case
$10.24
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 23.3
Bear Case
$3.48
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.8
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 12, 2026 6:00 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:00 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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