Gerdau (GGB) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
GGB - Gerdau S.A.
$4.66
-0.08 (-1.69%)
▼
5d:
-8.63%
30d:
-3.12%
90d:
-7.91%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 30, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Oct 26, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: GGB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: GGB shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$8.36
Based on 9.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$5.19
10.2% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 1.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: GGB is currently trading at $4.66, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $4.75 to $5.15. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 1.4) compared to its historical average (1.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 3.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 46.1% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.40, while resistance sits at $5.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.73 (+23.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, GGB is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $4.40, while resistance sits at $5.30.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 59/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.73 (+23.0%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$4.75 -
$5.15
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
79.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (59/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 23.0% below Wall St target ($5.73)
- NEUTRAL: Bottoming setup forming (59/100) — watch for confirmation
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-8.6%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$4.75 -
$5.15
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$4.40
Resistance Level
$5.30
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 30, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
1.40
Wall Street Target
$5.73
(+23.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
46.1%
Profit Margin
3.9%
Valuation Discount vs History
-3.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
1.4 vs 1.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-3.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$4.50
(-4%)
2-Year Target
$4.34
(-7%)
3-Year Target
$4.19
(-10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 1→2)
$4.79
(+3%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 19.9, Growth: 15.0%)
$100.40
(+2054%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 1.4, Growth: 15.0%)
$7.08
(+52%)
Bear:
(PE: 1.2, Growth: 15.0%)
$6.02
(+29%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (18x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (1x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 17.56 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.27
Bull Case
$10.43
(+124%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 19.3
Base Case
$9.48
(+103%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 17.6
Bear Case
$3.22
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 14.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 1.4 to 1.6
Stabilization Target:
$5.32
(+14.3%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.3%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: November 01, 2026 7:57 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:57 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is GGB showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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