HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$8.36
0.05 (0.60%)
â˛
5d:
-3.91%
30d:
+6.23%
90d:
+15.31%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Aug 21, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HLMN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
âšī¸ NEUTRAL: HLMN is fairly priced but lacks strong directional signals. At -1.3% expected growth, valuation appears fair. Wait for clearer setup or better entry on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$13.88
Based on 9.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$8.62
3.0% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $8.36, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.83 to $8.90. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.3) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 1.3% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 34.8% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLMN scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.43 (+48.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $8.21. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: HLMN scores 15/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge. Note this measures entry quality, not trend direction — a low score can mean the chart is extended after a strong run (don't chase) or still falling without stabilization; better entries typically come after a pullback toward the 20-day average. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.43 (+48.7%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$7.83 -
$8.90
Company Quality Score
41/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
42.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (15/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 48.7% below Wall St target ($12.43)
- WARNING: Composite score 41/100 in the bottom quintile â this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.83 -
$8.90
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$8.22
Resistance Level
$9.24
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 21, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.29
Wall Street Target
$12.43
(+48.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
34.8%
Profit Margin
2.6%
Valuation Discount vs History
-1.3% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.3 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-1.3%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.25
(-1%)
2-Year Target
$8.14
(-3%)
3-Year Target
$8.04
(-4%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12â13)
$8.37
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.1, Growth: 15.7%)
$21.17
(+153%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.3, Growth: 15.7%)
$12.96
(+55%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.4, Growth: 15.7%)
$11.02
(+32%)
đ
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (42x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 41.55 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.20
Bull Case
$18.28
(+119%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 45.7
Base Case
$16.62
(+99%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 41.6
Bear Case
$5.65
(-32%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 35.3
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
đĄ
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.3 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$8.71
(+4.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+4.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 23, 2026 7:39 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 8:39 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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