HLMN Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HLMN - Hillman Solutions Corp. Common Stock
$8.31
0.44 (5.59%)
▲
5d:
+3.23%
30d:
+2.34%
90d:
+5.73%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 31, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HLMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HLMN shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$15.86
Based on 12.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$9.85
15.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.8x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HLMN is currently trading at $8.31, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $7.82 to $8.27. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 11.8) is in line with its historical norms (12.8). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 2.5% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 209.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+44.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HLMN is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $8.36. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 5.6% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $12.00 (+44.4%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$7.82 -
$8.27
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
55.7%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+5.6%)
- BULLISH: Trading 44.4% below Wall St target ($12.00)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$7.82 -
$8.27
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$7.73
Resistance Level
$8.36
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Aug 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
11.84
Wall Street Target
$12.00
(+44.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
3.0%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
209.7%
Profit Margin
2.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-2.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
11.8 vs 12.8
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-2.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$8.10
(-3%)
2-Year Target
$7.90
(-5%)
3-Year Target
$7.70
(-7%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→13)
$8.32
(+0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.7, Growth: 20.4%)
$25.38
(+205%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 11.8, Growth: 20.4%)
$14.50
(+75%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.1, Growth: 20.4%)
$12.32
(+48%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (44x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 43.72 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.18
Bull Case
$17.31
(+108%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 48.1
Base Case
$15.74
(+89%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 43.7
Bear Case
$5.35
(-36%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 37.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 11.8 to 12.8
Stabilization Target:
$8.98
(+8.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+8.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: August 03, 2026 6:12 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:12 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HLMN showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
2
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Amanda Kitzberger
SELL
11804 shares
2026-03-10
Scott Kelley Moore
SELL
1451 shares
2026-03-10
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