HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$14.59
-0.82 (-5.32%)
▼
5d:
-17.94%
30d:
-12.95%
90d:
+5.27%
HOLD
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 24, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: HMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
📊 HOLD: HMY shows mixed signals. Fine to hold existing positions. Not urgent to buy or sell.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$35.47
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$22.02
33.8% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.6x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $14.59, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.52 to $17.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 4.4) compared to its historical average (6.6). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 12.8% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+57.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. The price is currently testing key support at $14.48. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 5.3% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a weak technical setup (25/100), with bearish trendlines and momentum suggesting caution for short-term entries. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+57.7%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$15.52 -
$17.79
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
52.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BEARISH: Weak technical setup (25/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-5.3%)
- BULLISH: Trading 57.7% below Wall St target ($23.01)
- CAUTION: 5-day price weakness (-17.9%) - monitor closely
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.52 -
$17.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$14.48
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
4.39
Wall Street Target
$23.01
(+57.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-12.8% cheaper
PE vs Historical
4.4 vs 6.6
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-12.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$13.13
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$11.82
(-19%)
3-Year Target
$10.64
(-27%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→7)
$15.97
(+10%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 16.4%)
$114.15
(+682%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 4.4, Growth: 16.4%)
$23.03
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.7, Growth: 16.4%)
$19.58
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 10.70 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.59
Bull Case
$37.42
(+143%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 11.8
Base Case
$34.02
(+121%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 10.7
Bear Case
$11.57
(-25%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 4.4 to 6.6
Stabilization Target:
$21.91
(+50.2%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+50.2%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 5:24 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 6:24 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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