HMY Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HMY - Harmony Gold Mining Company Limited
$17.12
-0.55 (-3.11%)
▼
5d:
-2.51%
30d:
+10.52%
90d:
-15.54%
BUY
HIGH Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 3, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 27, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.1% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
✅ BUY SIGNAL: HMY appears deeply undervalued. Market expects -9.1% annual earnings decline despite 23% recent earnings growth. Contrarian opportunity at discount to historical valuation.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$37.08
Based on 10.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$23.03
25.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 6.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HMY is currently trading at $17.12, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $15.99 to $17.93. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 5.2) compared to its historical average (6.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.1% over the next few years. This pessimistic expectation contrasts with the company's recent 22.7% earnings growth, suggesting potential undervaluation if the company simply maintains stability.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.54, while resistance sits at $18.64. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+34.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HMY is in a downtrend. Immediate support is located at $16.54, while resistance sits at $18.64. Short-term momentum is weak, with the stock down 3.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: HMY has a strong technical setup (60/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $23.01 (+34.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$15.99 -
$17.93
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
78.6%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (60/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BEARISH: Downward momentum (-3.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading 34.4% below Wall St target ($23.01)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$15.99 -
$17.93
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$16.54
Resistance Level
$18.64
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 3, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
5.16
Wall Street Target
$23.01
(+34.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
19.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
22.7%
Profit Margin
20.1%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.1% cheaper
PE vs Historical
5.2 vs 6.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$15.56
(-9%)
2-Year Target
$14.15
(-17%)
3-Year Target
$12.86
(-25%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 5→7)
$17.21
(+1%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.9, Growth: 16.4%)
$114.83
(+571%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 5.2, Growth: 16.4%)
$27.03
(+58%)
Bear:
(PE: 4.4, Growth: 16.4%)
$22.97
(+34%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (11x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (5x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 11.11 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.58
Bull Case
$38.63
(+112%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 12.2
Base Case
$35.12
(+92%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 11.1
Bear Case
$11.94
(-35%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 9.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 5.2 to 6.9
Stabilization Target:
$22.91
(+33.8%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+33.8%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 03, 2026 8:41 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 9:41 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HMY showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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