HOG Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
HOG - Harley-Davidson, Inc.
$25.39
0.25 (0.99%)
▲
5d:
+0.28%
30d:
+3.97%
90d:
+11.41%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 23, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: HOG shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 2.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$45.25
Based on 14.5% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$28.10
9.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: HOG is currently trading at $25.39, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.62 to $25.69. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 13.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 2.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, HOG is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $25.88. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$24.62 -
$25.69
Company Quality Score
54/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($26.18)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 2.9% growth with -11.8% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.62 -
$25.69
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.44
Resistance Level
$25.88
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
13.44
Wall Street Target
$26.18
(+3.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-11.8%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-79.4%
Profit Margin
5.3%
Valuation Premium vs History
+2.9% premium
PE vs Historical
13.4 vs 12.3
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+2.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.13
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$26.88
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$27.66
(+9%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 13→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.32
(0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 378.8%)
$138.87
(+447%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 13.4, Growth: 378.8%)
$85.69
(+238%)
Bear:
(PE: 11.4, Growth: 378.8%)
$72.84
(+187%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
Trailing PE: 13.03 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.93
Bull Case
$27.07
(+7%)
Analyst growth -2.1%, PE expands to 14.3
Base Case
$24.61
(-3%)
Market implied -2.1%, PE stable at 13.0
Bear Case
$17.10
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.1
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 10:22 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 11:22 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is HOG showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
3
Buys
1
Sells
+
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Tim Moore
BUY
2026-03-12
Rafeh Masood
BUY
2775 shares
2026-02-27
James D Farley Jr
SELL
6454 shares
2026-02-25
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