ITRI Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
ITRI - Itron Inc
$81.10
-0.66 (-0.81%)
▼
5d:
+0.48%
30d:
-0.92%
90d:
-13.17%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Jul 30, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: ITRI shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 4.5% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$130.78
Based on 6.9% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$81.20
0.1% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 14.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: ITRI is currently trading at $81.10, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $79.86 to $83.36. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 12.5) compared to its historical average (14.3). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 4.5% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITRI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.50, while resistance sits at $83.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.70 (+55.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, ITRI is in a strong downtrend. Immediate support is located at $78.50, while resistance sits at $83.56.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $126.70 (+55.0%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$79.86 -
$83.36
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
72.4%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 55.0% below Wall St target ($126.70)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$79.86 -
$83.36
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$78.50
Resistance Level
$83.56
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 23, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.47
Wall Street Target
$126.70
(+55.0%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-3.3%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-16.9%
Profit Margin
12.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-4.5% cheaper
PE vs Historical
12.5 vs 14.3
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-4.5%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$78.08
(-5%)
2-Year Target
$74.57
(-9%)
3-Year Target
$71.21
(-13%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→14)
$81.67
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 9.8%)
$189.09
(+131%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.5, Growth: 9.8%)
$108.25
(+32%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.6, Growth: 9.8%)
$92.02
(+13%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (13x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 12.91 | Current EPS (TTM): $6.26
Bull Case
$93.11
(+14%)
Analyst growth 4.7%, PE expands to 14.2
Base Case
$84.64
(+4%)
Market implied 4.7%, PE stable at 12.9
Bear Case
$54.95
(-33%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 11.0
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 12.5 to 14.3
Stabilization Target:
$93.77
(+14.7%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+14.7%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 23, 2026 3:52 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 4:52 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is ITRI showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
16
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Joan S Hooper
SELL
3533 shares
2026-02-26
Donald L Reeves III
SELL
519 shares
2026-02-25
David Marshall Wright
SELL
264 shares
2026-02-20
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