JHX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JHX - James Hardie Industries plc
$26.89
0.23 (0.86%)
▲
5d:
+7.99%
30d:
+0.98%
90d:
+20.85%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 28, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
8d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JHX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JHX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.18
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.36
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.3x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JHX is currently trading at $26.89, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $24.74 to $26.44. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.1) compared to its historical average (17.3). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JHX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.18 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a strong uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $27.49. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JHX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $30.18 (+16.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$24.74 -
$26.44
Company Quality Score
52/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
62.9%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($30.18)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.8% growth with 44.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$24.74 -
$26.44
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$24.43
Resistance Level
$27.49
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jul 28, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.05
Wall Street Target
$30.18
(+16.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.8% premium
PE vs Historical
21.1 vs 17.3
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.62
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$29.50
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$31.50
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.89
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$36.38
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$36.21
(+40%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.3, Growth: 12.0%)
$29.90
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.69 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.23
Bull Case
$32.19
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.8
Base Case
$26.66
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.7
Bear Case
$20.39
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.5
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 28, 2026 4:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JHX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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