JHX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JHX - James Hardie Industries plc
$26.02
0.20 (0.77%)
▲
5d:
+5.82%
30d:
+21.14%
90d:
+33.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 25, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JHX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JHX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 7.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$30.46
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$18.91
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 16.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JHX is currently trading at $26.02, which is considered extended relative to its 30-day fair value range of $21.25 to $24.89. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.2) compared to its historical average (16.9). At these levels, the market is pricing in 7.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JHX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: JHX has a strong technical setup (75/100), with favorable trendlines, momentum, and price action for short-term traders. Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
EXTENDED
Historical Trading Range
$21.25 -
$24.89
Company Quality Score
59/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
60.5%
All Signals
- BEARISH: Price extended above range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (75/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- NEUTRAL: Near Wall St target ($28.46)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 7.9% growth with 44.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$21.25 -
$24.89
Current vs Trading Range
EXTENDED
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.82
Resistance Level
$23.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.18
Wall Street Target
$28.46
(+9.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+7.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.2 vs 16.9
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+7.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$28.08
(+8%)
2-Year Target
$30.29
(+16%)
3-Year Target
$32.69
(+26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$26.09
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$37.64
(+45%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$36.60
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$29.21
(+12%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 22.47 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.16
Bull Case
$31.42
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 23.6
Base Case
$26.02
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 22.5
Bear Case
$19.91
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 20.2
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 26, 2026 4:01 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 5:01 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JHX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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