JHX Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JHX - James Hardie Industries plc
$25.78
1.49 (6.13%)
▲
5d:
+2.91%
30d:
+7.91%
90d:
+21.89%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 14, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 18, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JHX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JHX shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 6.9% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$31.00
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$19.25
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 17.2x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JHX is currently trading at $25.78, which is considered slightly high relative to its 30-day fair value range of $23.59 to $25.98. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (17.2). At these levels, the market is pricing in 6.9% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.46 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $23.70. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation. The stock is showing strong short-term momentum, up 6.1% recently.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (55/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $28.46 (+10.4%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Historical Trading Range
$23.59 -
$25.98
Company Quality Score
55/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.0%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (55/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Strong upward momentum (+6.1%)
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($28.46)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 6.9% growth with 44.5% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$23.59 -
$25.98
Current vs Trading Range
SLIGHTLY HIGH
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$21.82
Resistance Level
$23.70
Current Trend
Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.98
Wall Street Target
$28.46
(+10.4%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
44.5%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-50.5%
Profit Margin
2.1%
Valuation Premium vs History
+6.9% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 17.2
STRETCHED
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+6.9%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$27.56
(+7%)
2-Year Target
$29.46
(+14%)
3-Year Target
$31.49
(+22%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→17)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.82
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 12.0%)
$37.64
(+46%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 21.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$36.26
(+41%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$29.73
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.60 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.19
Bull Case
$31.13
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.7
Base Case
$25.78
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.6
Bear Case
$19.72
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.4
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 14, 2026 9:34 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:34 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JHX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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