James Hardie Industries (JHX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JHX - James Hardie Industries plc
$25.12
-0.03 (-0.12%)
▼
5d:
+0.52%
30d:
-10.89%
90d:
+3.42%
HOLD
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Oct 9, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Nov 16, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 HOLD: JHX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
📊 HOLD: JHX is fairly valued with market pricing in 3.1% annual growth. Fine to hold or accumulate slowly on dips.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.70
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.93
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.7x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JHX is currently trading at $25.12, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $25.20 to $28.65. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 20.4) is in line with its historical norms (18.7). At these levels, the market is pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.92, while resistance sits at $26.14.
Market Sentiment: JHX scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.22 (+40.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a uptrend. Immediate support is located at $23.92, while resistance sits at $26.14.
Market Sentiment: JHX scores 81/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge — the chart has corrected and is stabilizing (RSI reset, momentum turning up), historically a favorable entry zone. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.22 (+40.2%). The stock is fairly positioned - fine to hold existing positions or accumulate slowly on dips, but not an urgent buy.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$25.20 -
$28.65
Company Quality Score
61/100
(BUY)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
91.4%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- BULLISH: Strong technical setup (81/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 40.2% below Wall St target ($35.22)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 3.1% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- CAUTION: Bottoming setup, but lagging the sector by 18% over 20 days — wait for relative strength
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$25.20 -
$28.65
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$23.92
Resistance Level
$26.15
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Oct 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
20.44
Wall Street Target
$35.22
(+40.2%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
63.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.4%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+3.1% premium
PE vs Historical
20.4 vs 18.7
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+3.1%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$25.90
(+3%)
2-Year Target
$26.70
(+6%)
3-Year Target
$27.53
(+10%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 20→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.18
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 20.4, Growth: 12.0%)
$35.34
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 19.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$34.33
(+37%)
Bear:
(PE: 16.9, Growth: 12.0%)
$29.18
(+16%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (20x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.79 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.15
Bull Case
$30.33
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$25.12
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$19.22
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: October 10, 2026 11:59 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 12:59 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JHX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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