James Hardie Industries (JHX) Stock: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JHX - James Hardie Industries plc
$25.82
-0.09 (-0.35%)
▼
5d:
-9.31%
30d:
-14.5%
90d:
+3.82%
WAIT
LOW Confidence
Analysis Updated: Sep 18, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
0d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JHX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
📊 MIXED SIGNALS: JHX shows conflicting indicators. Wait for confirmation before entering.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$33.34
Based on 8.0% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$20.70
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 18.5x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JHX is currently trading at $25.82, which is considered oversold relative to its 30-day fair value range of $27.91 to $30.79. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a premium (Forward PE: 21.0) compared to its historical average (18.5). At these levels, the market is pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth. This growth rate appears achievable given the company's track record, suggesting the valuation is rational.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.25 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JHX is in a strong uptrend. The price is currently testing key support at $25.33. A bounce from this level would confirm strength, while a break below could signal further downside.
Market Sentiment: The stock scores a mixed 41/100 on our bottoming-setup gauge, with only partial signs of a stabilized entry point. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $35.25 (+36.5%). Current signals suggest waiting for a better entry point before initiating new positions.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
OVERSOLD
Historical Trading Range
$27.91 -
$30.79
Company Quality Score
47/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
80.5%
All Signals
- BULLISH: Price oversold vs 30-day range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (41/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 36.5% below Wall St target ($35.25)
- NEUTRAL: Market pricing in 4.4% annual earnings growth - fairly valued
- WARNING: Composite score 47/100 in the bottom quintile — this cohort historically lags the market
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$27.91 -
$30.79
Current vs Trading Range
OVERSOLD
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$25.33
Resistance Level
$31.43
Current Trend
Strong Uptrend
Technical data as of
Sep 18, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
21.01
Wall Street Target
$35.25
(+36.5%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
63.9%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
23.4%
Profit Margin
2.7%
Valuation Premium vs History
+4.4% premium
PE vs Historical
21.0 vs 18.5
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+4.4%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$26.96
(+4%)
2-Year Target
$28.14
(+9%)
3-Year Target
$29.38
(+14%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 21→19)
PE COMPRESSION
$25.87
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.0, Growth: 12.0%)
$36.32
(+41%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 20.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$34.91
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 17.2, Growth: 12.0%)
$29.68
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (22x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (21x PE) as earnings recover.
Forward PE: 21.79 | Forward EPS (Implied): $1.19
Bull Case
$31.18
(+21%)
Analyst growth 15.0%, PE expands to 22.9
Base Case
$25.82
(0%)
Market implied 0.0%, PE stable at 21.8
Bear Case
$19.75
(-24%)
Severe decline -15.0%, PE contracts to 19.6
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: September 20, 2026 9:29 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:29 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JHX showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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