JRVR Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
JRVR - James River Group Holdings, Ltd
$4.02
0.11 (2.81%)
▲
5d:
-3.6%
30d:
-2.19%
90d:
-35.78%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jun 23, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 03, 2026
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JRVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: JRVR shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 9.6% decline. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$10.38
Based on 14.1% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$6.44
37.6% Margin of Safety
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 4.9x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: JRVR is currently trading at $4.02, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $3.92 to $4.16. From a valuation perspective, the stock is trading at a discount (Forward PE: 3.6) compared to its historical average (4.9). Remarkably, the market is currently pricing in an annual earnings decline of 9.6% over the next few years. This aligns with recent fundamental challenges.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, JRVR is in a strong downtrend. The price is approaching resistance at $4.11. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (45/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $5.38 (+33.7%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$3.92 -
$4.16
Company Quality Score
57/100
(HOLD)
Options IV Signal
37th percentile
(NORMAL)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
71.9%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Options fairly priced (IV 37th percentile)
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (45/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading 33.7% below Wall St target ($5.38)
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$3.92 -
$4.16
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Expected Move (7 Days)
±$0.40
(9.9%)
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$3.80
Resistance Level
$4.11
Current Trend
Strong Downtrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
3.63
Wall Street Target
$5.38
(+33.7%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
-12.1%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-53.3%
Profit Margin
4.3%
Valuation Discount vs History
-9.6% cheaper
PE vs Historical
3.6 vs 4.9
CHEAP
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
-9.6%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$3.63
(-10%)
2-Year Target
$3.29
(-18%)
3-Year Target
$2.97
(-26%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 4→5)
$4.01
(0%)
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 24.1%)
$46.10
(+1047%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 3.6, Growth: 24.1%)
$7.68
(+91%)
Bear:
(PE: 3.1, Growth: 24.1%)
$6.52
(+62%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (9x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (4x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 9.31 | Current EPS (TTM): $0.42
Bull Case
$8.60
(+114%)
Analyst growth 100.0%, PE expands to 10.2
Base Case
$7.82
(+95%)
Market implied 100.0%, PE stable at 9.3
Bear Case
$2.66
(-34%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 7.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
💡
Upside Surprise Potential
If earnings stabilize (0% growth), PE could expand from 3.6 to 4.9
Stabilization Target:
$5.43
(+35.1%)
PE Expansion Potential:
+35.1%
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: June 24, 2026 9:42 AM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 10:42 AM
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Technical Signals Check
Is JRVR showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
0
Sells
0
Net
NEUTRAL
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Advanced JRVR Option Strategies
Professional options setups generated by AI based on today's JRVR price and gamma walls.
