KDP Stock Analysis: Buy, Sell, or Hold?
KDP - Keurig Dr Pepper Inc.
$31.25
-0.42 (-1.33%)
▼
5d:
-1.57%
30d:
-1.42%
90d:
+17.61%
BUY
MODERATE Confidence
Analysis Updated: Jul 13, 2026 12:00 AM ET
Earnings: Aug 06, 2026
23d
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Interactive Price Chart (1 Month)
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Bottom Line:
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
💡 BUY OPPORTUNITY: KDP shows positive signals but monitor for confirmation. Market pricing in 0.8% growth. Moderate conviction.
Long-Term Wealth Forecast (2031)
Based on Analyst Consensus Growth & Historical Valuation
0% (Stagnation)
50% (Hyper Growth)
EST. PRICE IN 2031
$43.35
Based on 7.2% avg growth
INTRINSIC VALUE TODAY
$26.92
Trading above historical range
How this is calculated: We use a Growth Decay Model: starting with analyst consensus growth (adjusted above) and gradually slowing it down to a long-term terminal rate (4%) by Year 5. This provides a more realistic valuation than assuming constant hyper-growth. We then apply a 12.1x Exit PE.
In-depth Analysis How we analyze
Valuation Analysis: KDP is currently trading at $31.25, which is considered fair relative to its 30-day fair value range of $30.70 to $32.59. The stock's valuation (Forward PE: 12.4) is in line with its historical norms (12.1). At these levels, the market is pricing in 0.8% annual earnings growth.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.41 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Technical Outlook: Technically, KDP is in a uptrend. The price is approaching resistance at $31.60. A breakout above this level would be a bullish signal, while rejection here could lead to consolidation.
Market Sentiment: The stock shows a mixed technical setup (40/100), with neutral trendline and momentum signals. Wall Street analysts see significant upside, with an average price target of $34.41 (+10.1%). Combining these factors, the current setup offers a favorable risk/reward ratio for buyers.
Quick Decision Summary
Current Position
FAIR
Historical Trading Range
$30.70 -
$32.59
Company Quality Score
56/100
(HOLD)
Volume Confirmation
HIGH
Confidence Score
73.3%
All Signals
- NEUTRAL: Price in fair range
- NEUTRAL: Mixed technical signals (40/100)
- BULLISH: High volume confirmation
- BULLISH: Trading below Wall St target ($34.41)
- BULLISH: Expecting earnings turnaround to 0.8% growth with 9.4% revenue growth
Trading Range Analysis
30-Day Trading Range
$30.70 -
$32.59
Current vs Trading Range
FAIR
Support & Resistance Levels
Support Level
$29.57
Resistance Level
$31.60
Current Trend
Uptrend
Technical data as of
Jun 9, 2026
Fundamental Context
Forward P/E (Next Year Est.)
12.36
Wall Street Target
$34.41
(+10.1%)
Revenue Growth (YoY)
9.4%
Earnings Growth (YoY)
-47.7%
Profit Margin
10.8%
Valuation Premium vs History
+0.8% premium
PE vs Historical
12.4 vs 12.1
FAIR
Market-Implied Price Targets
If current PE multiple persists
Implied Growth (YoY):
+0.8%
(market-implied from PE analysis)
1-Year Target
$31.50
(+1%)
2-Year Target
$31.75
(+2%)
3-Year Target
$32.01
(+2%)
3-Yr Target (if PE normalizes)
(PE: 12→12)
PE COMPRESSION
$31.33
(+0%)
Earnings growth offset by PE compression
3-Year Scenarios
Using analyst projected EPS growth
Bull:
(PE: 21.8, Growth: 10.5%)
$74.26
(+138%)
Base:
(SPY PE: 12.4, Growth: 10.5%)
$42.15
(+35%)
Bear:
(PE: 10.5, Growth: 10.5%)
$35.83
(+15%)
📈
Valuation based on Current Earnings
RECOVERY PLAY: Stock looks expensive now (23x PE), but valuation improves significantly next year (12x PE) as earnings recover.
Trailing PE: 23.46 | Current EPS (TTM): $1.35
Bull Case
$65.23
(+109%)
Analyst growth 87.2%, PE expands to 25.8
Base Case
$59.30
(+90%)
Market implied 87.2%, PE stable at 23.5
Bear Case
$21.54
(-31%)
Severe decline -20.0%, PE contracts to 19.9
These are projections based on PE multiples and EPS growth scenarios, not predictions. Actual results may vary significantly.
Share & Embed Analysis
Last updated: July 13, 2026 6:19 PM ET
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
Data refreshes hourly during market hours. Next update: 7:19 PM
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Technical Signals Check
Is KDP showing a specific setup today?
Insider Activity (6 Months)
0
Buys
1
Sells
Net
INSIDERS SELLING
Recent Transactions
Ro Khanna
SELL
2026-01-29
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